Hello LULZ I need your help to talk me out of this. I know this is delusional, but I can't shake the feeling this may actually happen with institutional investment.
Here is the current state of the price of Bitcoin. As you may be aware, the RSI on the monthly time frame is fairly accurate and predictible. It seems to be a reliable indicator of when Bitcoin is oversold.
I am going to need to make a few posts with images to get my point across so please bear with me.
Also, please rationally try and explain to me what I am missing, I need genuine responses here please help.
(1/4)
Now, from November 2013 there was a significant bear market we all know this. It wasn't until September 2015 that we saw a gradual uptrend that eventually propelled into the mainstream as mania during the 2017 bull run.
Take note the first blue line in this image is the low for this cycle at ~150 dollars USD. Where the RSI is at its lowest.
Please now examine the orange line. It's roughly 50% below the ATH by this point, please look at the respective RSI pattern.
(2/4)
Each subsequent peak is a smaller multiple of the previous peak than the peak that came before. We're not going to see a copy-paste repeat of any previous cycle that isn't adjusted downward. I think it's going to go wild in this cycle, largely because it was stifled during the last one (COVID and the China mining ban), but I still think it will be tough to get explosive growth to the degree of any of the previous runs.
A million dollars would be a 14x over previous peak. I think 450k (a 6x from previous peak) is the highest reasonable estimate. 110k (a 1.5x from previous peak) is the lowest.
Moreover, I don't think what we're seeing right now is the start of the run. This is a fake pump on rumors of ETF approval. The real run won't start until after the halving in April. We'll see a return to sub-30k before then.
based on what? one cycles data point in 2021?
>based on what? one cycles data point in 2021?
All cycles' data points.
2013 peak was a 500x from low
2017 peak was a 133x from low
2021 peak was a 20x from low, but was held back by COVID and China. Probably should have been closer to 35x from low.
2025 peak will not be more than 35x from low, will almost certainly be less than that. If it's a 20x from low (matching previous cycle), the peak will be 300k.
Following the trend 500 > 133 > 35 > X, X is 9.5, meaning the peak will only be 140k.
>the peak will only be 140k.
lower
forgot to mention gold was confiscated at one point in time by executive order... if the fed wants it gone... they'll do it.
>Blackrock wants Bitcoin
as exit liquidity
Baby's first doomer post
screen this post that won't even breach 100k in the next 3 years.
Delusional, with an etf simply it can't avoid going beyond those prices, mathematically.
Blackrock suggested allocation into assets gave an astonishing 80% into bitcoin for good portfolio performance.
If the etf issuing companies make their clients allocate even just 1% of their capital into bitcoin that's already shooting it up to 600k? I don't really remember the calculation but it was a ridiculous amount.
>forgot to mention gold was confiscated at one point in time by executive order... if the fed wants it gone... they'll do it.
And what can they confiscate with bitcoin unless you hold it in an institution? They'll knock door by door and look for your keys?
>as exit liquidity
Doesn't that imply that they want the most amount of volume in it? They'll shill the fuck out of btc since they'll make money on the fees and likely their gains too if they bought any for just trading it.
>If the etf issuing companies make their clients allocate even just 1% of their capital into bitcoin that's already shooting it up to 600k?
im delusional? check pic rel
its going to take multiple cycles to reach 600k. remember btc is seeing diminishing returns... and thats a big assumption of them converting 1% of there AUM into btc... more like 0.1% or even 0.01%. Its a new and risky af asset for these boomers.
>They'll knock door by door and look for your keys?
lil bro they can just send in the FBI to raid miners in the US, confiscate any btc held on exchanges in the US, ban the purchase/selling of btc on exchanges, etc.
but thats an extreme case and the more likely route the gov will take is making the use of BTC inconvenient vs a CBDC, as long as BTC continues to have diminishing returns and it doesn't threaten US power/dominance.
and BTC slowly is doing so with terrorist orgs and rival states using tether.
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/11/08/us-bill-proposes-outlawing-government-use-of-china-made-blockchains-and-tethers-usdt/
https://www.reuters.com/technology/tether-freezes-873000-crypto-linked-terrorism-warfare-israel-ukraine-2023-10-16/
>Doesn't that imply that they want the most amount of volume in it?
yes, and it will be shilled but not for too long thanks to counter-party risks with tether and binance, and other entities engaging in widespread fraud, money laundering, ransomware, etc.
they'll all make a quick buck and cashout near the top, sub 100k, and introduce a CBDC.
this.
>It has to be at least 100k for miners to function
thats assuming mining difficult steadily grows, which it will as popularity comes back. which then brings in the dilemma that btc HAS to face... to introduce inflation in order to get miners paid? or to force miners to capitulate and thus sell BTC, driving prices down... and prices may even drive down further as pessimism over the security of the network grows...
>the more likely route the gov will take is making the use of BTC inconvenient vs a CBDC, as long as BTC
this meme of "the gov is going to protect its cbdc dollar" needs to die.
the politicians do not give a single fuck about the health of this country nor the health of its currency. they are a group of people that do as they are told....and frankly the NWO types would *prefer* the dollar to die. They WANT a private dollar that is not in the hands of any political control.
14 billion is a pathetically small amount, i heavily doubt it's going to play out as they "expect", which sounds more like turning down other players from it.
the rest of the post is cope i won't address.
>thats assuming mining difficult steadily grows, which it will as popularity comes back. which then brings in the dilemma that btc HAS to face... to introduce inflation in order to get miners paid? or to force miners to capitulate and thus sell BTC, driving prices down... and prices may even drive down further as pessimism over the security of the network grows...
False dilemma. The solution is to FINALLY increase the blocksize in order to scale transaction throughput. More transaction volume = more fees to replace the diminishing block reward. BTC won the fork wars long ago, but will willingly adapt itself to keep the miners in buisness or perish.
screenedcapped make sure you're on LULZ in about a year
ill be here next year on 11/11 every year until 2025, just to make it easier for me to remember when to check back in.
I think its somewhere from 90k usd to around 120k usd, I wouldn't definitely say its not going above 100k for sure because thats stupid, its just a number that represents the euphoria, it could be 98.2k or 105.4k.. its all the same.
I do know one thing for sure though, whatever the peak price is.... max keiser, michael saylor and every other retard with a check mark will be calling for higher prices.
people are calling for higher prices now, I'm getting 100k PTSD shit and its making me worry this is a fake pump
I think we have bear market PTSD a little bit and could potentially be in the "disbelief" phase of the market cycle.
That being said we could easily trend sideways/down into the halving and still be on course for 90k-100k by late 2025, however I sill think sideways up is more likely than sideways down in the next 6-12 months, especially for alts.
Keep your eye on pi cycle top, and longer term indicators like macd/stoch rsi/rsi etc.. "davthewave", "therationalroot" and "cryptocon_" on twitter have been fairly useful for me.
fear/greed indicator, 4stats LULZ traffic and google trends are good indicators to gauge sentiment too.
gl hf LULZ bros, old rich fags have dropped gems for me in the past so us newerfag pre-rich cunts should try to do the same. Its us vs them remember you stupid fucking retarded autistic homosexuals? fuck you all <3.
Witnessed
what do you get if you stick in 20 instead of 35
>Each subsequent peak is a smaller multiple of the previous peak than the peak that came before.
That's just retail topping out:
>Level 1: Hobbyists
>Level 2: Retail
>Level 3: Retail bank adoption
>Level 4: Institutional adoption
>Level 5: International reserve currency adoption
We're coming to the end of Level 2. We are entering a mix of Level 2 & 3 next bullrun
>The real run won't start until after the halving in April.
This is where i have to stop you... Why?
Don't fall for dogmas, most of the supply is already in the open, miners supply is marginal in price action.
So don't be obtuse, and think outside the box, especially now that the boxe's walls are so visible to every average Joe.
Don't consider the halving this time, just look at the price action, the timing, the liquidity in the market.
I believe this time we're getting our bullrun way earlier than anyone expects, at least testing ath months before April next year, i believe that's happening by the beginning of next year, mid january from all the meme lines on my charts and knowledge and ideas I've gathered from unpopular others
Markets are irrational. I’ve noticed many crypto neophytes who just recently joined us in 2020 are prone to looking back at cycles they missed and trying to find patterns to guide their investment approach. This thread is covered in hot garbage takes.
I’m in your camp - while no ones knows fuck - it wouldn’t surprise me to see Bitcoin rip to new ATH before the halving even starts. It’s a prime example of
>markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
So many smug grinners waiting for the right moment to buy in or leverage will get wrecked or priced out forever.
Just buy and hold Bitcoin.
This section could be interpreted slightly but if you look at the RSI on this section of the chart, it was actually lower at the bottom, probably due to SBF and his black swan event that occurred in November 2022.
If we account for this the chart would look almost identical in terms of RSI and how it bounced back up.
If you don't agree with my reasoning on this, that's alright but I believe this to be true.
On top of this, where we are now is approximately 50% from ATH as well, just like in the previous chart.
(3/4)
Which begs the question for me and the part I need you guys to bring me down from as I cannot stop seeing it.
If I overlap the 2015 chart from where the pi cycle top and the RSI chart actually occurred (March of 2021) what does it look like?
What if these institutions really do begin pushing Bitcoin to limits beyond what we have seen in a long time?
I know it looks like I am ignoring a few things like the bounce to 69k, but I believe that was nothing more than a dead cat bounce, again I know I am making an assumption.
The thing that's fucking me around is if you look at this bottom chart, it goes to one million. One million dollars. By the end of 2025.
At the same level of RSI as 600 dollars in 2016, it then went to 20,000USD.
I haven't moved the bars in these two photos it is exactly the same, I didn't believe it when I saw it.
What bias am I missing here bros? Could institutions really pump it this much? Is it a result of the US printing endlessly for their proxy wars?
If this is right, basically any and all major alts you hold in this space will grant you a shitload of wealth.
Please don't just shitpost bros, I need actual responses, fault my reasoning. Can this really happen?
(4/4)
RSI is just a momentum indicator. The actual levels don't have much to do with the price.
>RSI is just a momentum indicator. The actual levels don't have much to do with the price.
You are factually wrong. The price and the levels are one and the same since the levels are dictated by the price.
The issue here is that you don't actually know what the RSI is and/or how it works mathematically speaking. Knowing how it works you can easily plot where the level could be based on price. Pic related.
>You are factually wrong. The price and the levels are one and the same since the levels are dictated by the price
What? RSI has been overbought when BTC was a few thousand dollars. It has been oversold when the price is tens of thousands of dollars
That's what an oscillator does. What's your point, exactly?
1mill is overkill. i would be happy if we see 100k
Good find anon, I also think that we are on the cusp of another major bullrun.
However, we need to take into account the law of diminishing returns. The longer bitcoin is around the more awareness people will have about it, and you can bet that every single institution has their eyes on it. The longer something is around the less risky it seems to invest in which will also limit the amount it can rise.
That said, I don't believe we will see 1 million dollar bitcoin anytime soon, simply because institutions haven't had the chance to accumulate a substantial position yet. Microstrategy is the only institution serious about accumulating bitcoin and there is no way all of the other firms are gonna flip a switch one day and allow themselves to pump Saylors bags.
The case I can see bitcoin hitting 1 million is if after this cycle (which I anticipate to be between 150k) is finished, we see a prolonged multi year bear market, maybe 2-3 years that wipes out 99% of the garbage and makes people truly feel like crypto is dead for good similar to how we felt in 2017, but on a larger magnitude and causes 99% of holders including current whales to capitulate. We may see a 80-90% drawdown again but it will feel way worse because of the psychological impact of watching something drop hundreds of thousands of dollars and wiping out retirement savings worldwide.
This is when institutions will begin building their positions, and after they enter for real bitcoin is likely going to perform similar to gold, slowly grinding up in a bull supercycle eventually reaching 1 million decades later.
While I completely agree with you anon, you may be right there is one thing I would like to put forward. If it is a spot ETF and their clients see BTC rising wanting to have a piece of it in their portfolio, does it not mean that institutions have to buy the BTC at spot prices to stay legitimate to their investors? So say at 100k every starts feeling the pinch and wants it in their portfolio, would institutions not have to buy in then? At 100k?
That's true, retail investors buying through institutions will create a ton of demand, but everything has a price, I believe that the amount of sellers willing to sell above 100k will eventually win over the buyers no matter how many boomers are buying in. ETF buyers are exit liquidity.
Yes, they have to buy at spot. And if no one’s selling at $100k, they have to offer more
>prolonged multi year bear market
another one of those posts that are so retarded they have to be paid for, if today didnt spawn a multi year bear market there is nothing in the near future to do so
also the biggest institutional pusher with the etfs isnt interested in buying low and selling high like you
they care in people trading on their platform and them taking a cut of each trade, they are largely price agnostic but very much need more participants and more participants are lured in with good price action so no need for institutional collusion to create a dip to buy as that would kill sentiment
I don't believe the prolonged bear will because by institutions, rather a natural conclusion to the decade long bull market we have experienced so far. Institutions are simply going to capitalize on the massive buy the dip opportunity.
>the law of diminishing returns
Yes, but also, no.
>In economics, diminishing returns are the decrease in marginal (incremental) output of a production process as the amount of a single factor of production is incrementally increased
BTC doesn't get incrementally increased production. It's the other way around.
>In economics, diminishing returns are the decrease in marginal (incremental) output of a production process as the amount of a single factor of production is incrementally increased
Isn't that exactly what bitcoin mining is like? The computation cost to produce a bitcoin is getting greater with each halving. In any case, the log chart of BTC is getting flatter, therefore each cycle yields less gains.
>The computation cost to produce a bitcoin is getting greater
It's getting greater (because it's profitable) but it doesn't NEED to be greater. Not like that matters since the Bitcoin production rate remains roughly the same no matter how many people get involved with it.
Wtf it does need to be greater that’s why bitcoin halves in value
This guy is a fucking retard who think he isn’t
Christ I’m going to have an aneurysm
>Wtf it does need to be greater
It doesn't.
>ctrl+f halving
>11 results
everyone here seems to be acting like a smug og bobo and waiting for that motherfucking meme event
what if this is 2017 again and BTC will super pump towards end of the year towards the old ATH while "smart money" just sits on their hands
after btc is back at 70k$ they're convinced that the "golden bull run" starts and they get dumped on........
>”this is gonna happen and this is gonna happen because… BECAUSE IT JUST IS ALRIGHT?”
homosexual.
>gets unreasonably triggered
>offers no rebuttal
yep.... a repulsive poorfag who wasted his life....
It was just retarded word salad that I didn’t know how to respond. At least OP posted some substance to his theory. You’re just spewing bullshit with nothing to back it.
>”the top is 150k because it’s obviously 150k”
You’re making up all this bullshit when you can easily look at the reality that’s occured. After the dot com bubble burst there wasn’t this sudden influx of institutional investors waiting on the sidelines to snap up cheap amazon stock. After the 2008 financial crisis there wasn’t a sudden influx of institutional investors buying up cheap foreclosed properties. You give too much credit to these outdated institutions full of old-ass boomers. The price isnt going to crash 99% ever. And even if it did you think blackrock is suddenly going to start buying an asset that lost 99% value overnight? That’s stupid and against the biggest priority of these firms which is to AVOID RISK. These institutions dont work like that no matter how much /boz might think so.
You can't compare a stock to bitcoin. At the moment, the backbone of the financial system, US treasuries, are not looking so safe. Bitcoin is a great hedge for balance sheets holding bonds. This is why I believe Blackrock is in a rush to get this ETF approved. Furthermore, the world is desperate for a neutral reserve asset and bitcoin fits that role better than any asset out there. Of course nothing is certain, but the reward outweighs the risk.
After these next two cycles, retail won't be holding much bitcoin. As soon as they see it cross 100k they will cash out, only to see it keep sailing away.
the part you are missing is that the dollar isnt an absolute value
the ppp of that 1 mil usd btc might not be what it used to be
in the near future the correct graph will be btc priced in barrels of oil like the bitmex ginger anagram has repeatedly hinted at or perhaps to a basket of commodities
for make no mistake about it we are in the endgame of tardfi fiat sytem and moves forward from here will be very spicy
so yeah all in crypto and dont sell any early bounces for fiat cuase you will end up roping
just look at all the retards swarming this thread screaming it will top out slightly above 100k, which is just a 3x from here and the money printing hasnt even started yet, thinking there are diminishing returns to btc when fiat devaluation is infinite is beyond retarded
this makes me think these posters are either paid jeets or larping oldfags
I’m an oldfag
The posters in this thread are just kids who mean well but don’t understand the basics like what is a halvening and what is a log chart
the chart you posted and all the ta meme lines cant factor for the macro conditions that are about to go through a singularity event where all past correlations break down and a new paradigm is established
if you try to swing it midcycle based on memeline correlations of the past you are at very high risk of roping here
the bears had an argument that btc could flush itself down the drain in late 2022 but today all that doubt is washed away and we know we will be some of the biggest benefactors of the largest financial rug pulled on the world
No offence but I think you’re an idiot
I can tell by the words you’re using you’re young and trying to sound smart which belies your youth and ignorance
The price is related to halvenings
Also you didn’t actually give any reasoning for your retarded point
That’s probably why I’m rich and you’re not but I reckon the reason you aren’t is because you’re young
It’s ok bro I’m just calling you out
>The price is related to halvenings
I'd like to challenge this view, price is related to macro liquidity cycles which corresponded to previous halvings.
Nowadays halvings aren't of that much impact.
This theory should be confirmed if we retest ath in the few following months.
Also I'd like to add, even if you made it anon don't become comfortable in your positions, thousands of other players striving to get where you are will desperately bend the game in their favour at every chance they can get.
With this in mind i would be at least weary thinking that you can win the game by playing with the same strategy for yet another time.
Captcha:0trymx
You're assuming that they can/are going to just keep printing money. The music has to stop at some point and recession is inevitable.
yes, every one that says they will not print is a retard and a recession means they have cover to print
think it through if they dont print who will buy tbills and how high do interests have to be
doing so means that the government must run within budget on an income level that is greater depression tier low, that means no gibs and no army
no government has ever willingly went bankrupt, trust in that they will print
anyone buying bonds because they believed the doomers is gonna regret that
Checked and based anon
This anon is 100% correct. They must print because the only other recourse is to reduce spending, which at this point is impossible.
Actually laughed put loud from this.
1. Deminishing returns
2. Btc is disliked now by governments and they're trying to control it (it was a CBDC twst run either way)
3. Price isn't predicted by looking at charts alone. If things worked like that wall street monkeys and every ijvestor ever would be making $$$$$$$$$$$$$$. Pls calm down and touch grass (saying for your own good) we are in the mids of ww3, global financial recession, global housing crisis, future uncertenty, mass job losses.
My prediction is 90k btc at best as a last bull run then it gets canned.
>in the mids
Down's syndrome baby monkey
And even the down's syndrome baby monkey isn't as delusional as rabid moomoos
>Actually laughed put loud from this.
>1. Deminishing returns
Exponential adoption
>2. Btc is disliked now by governments and they're trying to control it (it was a CBDC twst run either way)
They are failing, so they'll join it, the etf will just make adoption faster, while they think they are in control
>3. Price isn't predicted by looking at charts alone. If things worked like that wall street monkeys and every ijvestor ever would be making $$$$$$$$$$$$$$. Pls calm down and touch grass (saying for your own good) we are in the mids of ww3, global financial recession, global housing crisis, future uncertenty, mass job losses.
70% of the job is the chart alone, the rest is macro (real, not the propaganda slop from the news) and black swans
>My prediction is 90k btc at best as a last bull run then it gets canned.
That was my thought until i got more serious into analysing the situation.
In my thought the maximum top this cycle must be around 200 to 350k, if we cross above that line we're into black Swan territory, which is still likely as a scenario if you crunched the number of a bitcoin etf.
As for you op, I've been onto this scenario since the deep bear market from the chart alone, but macro is aligning to it so yeah, you're onto it, i think we're going to tickle the last all time highs in the following 2 to 4 months
I don’t know whether to thank you or not man, this is really feeding into my delusions at the moment. I am starting to believe it may be feasible.
It's really not delusion, but remember, it's best to sell halfway than waiting a destination that never comes.
Keep your eyes open and cash out and don't look back for years after you do, things are going to get messy after.
I think btc will enter 3 or more years of distribution after the etf is done pumping it
Fair point anon. Thank you for your insight and I wish you good luck
>im fat
>cant afford a house
>and le world is ending
if you're under 30 then you excused, not because youre right just the inexperience is understandable.
the "world has been ending" for every generation. i mean there were actual points in history - not that long ago - when 75% of all men your age were drafted and 30% of them died in decade long world wars.
there were actual points of history - not that long ago - when inflation was ravaging countries and interest rates topped at 16%.
zoom out.
saylor project 10 million dollars per coin. but not this cycle of course.
I was reading and waiting for the final conclusion and then this mf hits us with a $1 million Bitcoin chart lmao
If you measure every subsequent cycle low-to-high in percentages, there is a clear trend of major diminishing returns.
>2011-2013 was a 50000% gain
>2015-2017 was a 10000% gain
>2019-2021 was a 2000% gain
I'm not saying that every cycle should be divided by 5, but now to expect that Bitcoin is going to stop reverse the trend of diminishing returns and instead see an acceleration of gains is extremely unlikely.
>2011-2013 was a 50000% gain
>2015-2017 was a 10000% gain
>2019-2021 was a 2000% gain
>2023-2025 was a 50000% gain
>2027-2029 was a 10000% gain
>2031-2033 was a 2000% gain
screencap this.
>meaning the peak will only be 140k.
only
when
you
consider
retail
You're not wrong but something to consider, issuance going down and bitcoin's market cap is rather small compared to other assets. I can conservatively say that it'll reach gold's market cap with the next two cycles, at the best least.
You aren't thinking logically. You're looking at an RSI chart(technical indicator) and wondering if institutions can really pump BTC(a real world one off macro event) enough for the RSI to repeat. The RSI isn't some oracle. Its not predicting macro events, just looking at the current and past prices and applying math to the data. Logically, you should expect novel macro events to make RSI that otherwise might have been accurate become inaccurate. If institutions decide to pump BTC, the RSI pattern should deviate and BTC price should continue to go up even though RSI says its oversold and has been so for months.
2021's returns were way less than 2017's, and 2017's way less than 2013's. Overlaying it with past cycles like that is not accurate, the percentage gain is going to be less.
i hope you are right, however i think there are diminishing returns. i think 120k is the "minimum peak" this cycle
>however i think there are diminishing returns
How can that be in a world of a devaluing dollar that is tied to nothing. Especially with no one selling their BTC and potential cash inflows from institutions? You would get a huge liquidity shock upwards right?
True but it can determine where the top is, or the momentum shift. The RSI was exactly the same now was it was here
the only determining factor that could cause a consistent pump then was BTC going mainstream in terms of retail. Now it could go mainstream institutionally, having the same effect. But idk man, I just saw this and simply couldn't fathom it. Thank you for your input and trying to talk me down
not if you naggers are holding your coins on naked shorter cexes
It has to be at least 100k for miners to function. This will be the 2nd to last cycle before all the btc has been mined, so this would be the time to finally sell, I don't see btc becoming widely adopted my 2030
wroooooooong
PROGRAMMED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11
Ok here’s the chart for yards who can’t into technical analysis
Anytime
Im a newfag (2020) self admitted and willing to learn, how in the fuck do I read that top chart and what is it supposed to represent?
It is obvious to know the top chart when you see one anon. Do not panic buy because it's pamping. Resist the urge to buy obvious shills. Research before buying. If in a rush to make quick profits, online casinos like Dplay are more reliable and transparent to flip gains than with memes
>RSI on the monthly time frame is fairly accurate and predictible
>54 data points
OK
At halving day, I'll get a loan to buy BTC. Nothing too crazy, just 6x of my salary. After BTC 2x in price, I'll pay off the loan and pocket the free money. Thanks, halving God.
Let's hope that nagger swan won't get into your motor, good luck.
So the only sane scenario right now is to DCA.
You can't time next black swan whatever it could be or couldn't be at all.
The sane scenario is all in as you should have been since 15k
Yes (although I would argue that not all, just heavy (over 60%) DCA in), but that time is gone and he's here, asking what to do.
He should also read more our melatonine rich friend Arthur...
>You can't time next black swan
you can perfectly time the black swan, if it happens its pretty unambiguous in the chart like the coof drop
the only thing is maybe there isnt a black swan so even in the cautious scenario you should have been in 80% if your stack is big
if otherwise and your monthly savings still move the needle then like the other anon said just dca every month with your wagie gains from here on out
I think he means timing it before it happens anon, black swans are unpredictable by nature.
One could argue that covid was known by some ~~*people*~~, even though i know of a trader that sold the crash seeing the conditions in the markets calling for it...
You might be right, some black swans can be spotted on the chart, but hardly predictable.
Yes, that's what he means...
In the hindsight, one could also argue that covid was planned and some shit was expected anyway, pic rel.
One could further argue, that the JFK leak trade anon on /misc/ was a fucking black swan seen before landing.
>JFK
archive dRmNF
I don't know how to access whichever archive dRmNF is a key for, but I'm curious. How do I view this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archive.today
Well this is nice, no matter what I do I can't get past the cloudlfare captcha on the homepage.
Np, https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/241674007/
we all know a market oopsie is coming, same as we knew in october of 2019 that there was a serious problem in the repo market that would necessitate intervention
you can foretell the exact date and nature of the event, but you very much can say yep this is a crash and yep this depressed price is where i buy
during the coof everyone was calling the end of the world but the moment jpow got an stage and declared unlimited qe that was the buy moment, it will be again in the next crisis
so i stand by what i said have some minor part of your net in cash and wait for the drop, it will be painfully obvious when it happens
No volume fake pump whales will dump by EOY.
>The future price of Bitcoin
chart "analysis" = astrology for men, ie homosexualry
real future price of Bitcoin:
100k next week
All ETFs approved
250k+ eoy
500k+ next year
1mio mid 2025
10mio+ in 2029
shitcoins = going to 0 because 0 liquidity
2025
147k to 149.5k
Out.
Bitcoin is a finite asset, so how could there be diminishing returns? Normally as an asset accrues value, it gets diluted with more supply. In the current macro situation, only hard assets will be valuable in the future.
the only real question is how many OG coins remain in viable/accessible wallets?
markets always work by laddering-up. Those that get in at $30 capitulate at $500, those that get in at $500 capitulate at $5000, etc....
Its very possible that if we hit 200-300k then that triggers huge amounts of dormant supply out cold storage to get dumped....which then begets a new floor for those new owners who will then capitulate at $1m
one aspect of this is as you move each ladder up, those participants (due to their size), become (a) more satisfied with 3x returns rather than 10x, and (b) buy and sell in more controlled fashioned - smoothing out the big peaks / valleys.
The capital inflow required to 5* Bitcoin from $4,000 to $20,000 is far less than that required to move $20,000 to $100,000. I can't be bothered to do the calculation for exact inflow required, feel free to do it yourself to disprove me if you like. That's the law of diminishing returns, and Bitcoin is susceptible. That's why 100k+ was predicted at last peak, but only got 69k. It will happen this cycle too; that's why your indicators will tell you when you sell, not a y axis target
global currency.
ehh...true...but last cycle there was also a fat israelite who took billions in customer funds and illegally shorted btc with it
>The capital inflow required to 5* Bitcoin from $4,000 to $20,000 is far less than that required to move $20,000 to $100,000
Factually wrong. You can push price up with less money if there's demand but not supply.
>The capital inflow required to 5* Bitcoin from $4,000 to $20,000 is far less than that required to move $20,000 to $100,000.
Nations are buying as a reserve currency. We know El Salvador ofc, but we recently found out Bhutan has quietly been dumping millions of dollars into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. We would never have known if it was not for BlockFi collapsing. How many other nations are buying?
This next bullrun will be banks and institutions, the one after will be global acceptance of BTC as a reserve currency. This is way, way, way beyond retail. Global reserve currency is coming. Bitcoin is unstoppable.
retard all it takes is the feds to outright ban btc to make it go away. and with tether not being audited properly and even used by enemy states like chinese/russians, and sometimes even terrorists to bypass SWIFT... all it takes is manufactured Problem, Reaction, Solution event to get everyone to transition over to a CBDC and abandon BTC. Likely something to do with a cyber pandemic as mentioned by the WEF.
The only reason why BTC will willingly live is just to raise $, and use the ETF as exit liquidity on retail, and THEN rugpull everyone into a CBDC.
USDC was okay with going along with the tether scam until they realized they were being used by tether to slowly dwindle reserves as they off-ramp to exchanges. mint fake usdt -> swap for usdc -> off ramp to exchages to usd.
why do you think sol and ftt, and maybe even some of the other scammy actors are coming back? ttheres still $ left to be made on this cow lol
>retard all it takes is the feds to outright ban btc to make it go away
Look at how ungodly corrupt Biden is. You think all his morals rest in his passionate convictions regarding Bitcoin? Blackrock wants Bitcoin. Blackrock is the most powerful private entity on earth. Blackrock gets what it wants. Retard.
It’s too late for that. Blackrock is in.
>create black market
>this lowers price
Lol. That won't happen, and if it did, it would be good for cold holders. You can pass all the laws you like, it isn't a magic switch that does what it says it will do, never has been, so idk why you midwits keep thinking laws are magic wands that actually perform their ostensible functions...
>war on poverty
>war on drugs
>war on terror
>war on crypto
Guess who wins, a centralized power or decentralized will of the People? Every time, over time, this is true. There are people in jail right now who will serve their term and exit fabulously wealthy from crypto that feds were not able to confiscate. Their best bet is to play along or get cut out of the future, they aren't as powerful as you imagine, but its inportant to them that you think they are.
In the future, nobody will be looking at how much a Bitcoin is worth rather, how much is a satoshi worth.
because price is determined by what people are willing to pay, and there's a lot of direct sale and OTC stuff in crypto, wouldn't be suprised if the market get's flooded with tokens for a big sell off to tank the price before it gets eaten up. It's like ETH, no one knows how much ETH there really is, think about how much was mined before it hit open markets and is just lurking the background?
this is seriously getting in my head, haven't felt like this since early link posts. it's also triggering my schizo side which is a good sign.
are there any other assets you can think of which rally in pairs? if 2020/21 was 2013/14 it might further back up your theory which i feel is pretty sound.
also with the new scaling layers and btc shitcoins entering the mix i was already thinking btc would defy expectations this bullrun.
part of me is getting paranoid, i might have to take screenshots of gains along the way or find some way to backup data outside of exchanges and the internet. there's no way they'll let retail get away with it - some sort of internet blackout where cex and dex data disappears maybe? i dunno, but you've got me spinning.
Quality DD. I can't even hate.
test
if we get 1m so soon its because of something bad happening to the purchasing power of the USD rather than something good happening to the purchasing power of the orange coin
I'm going to ask you the same question as this.
Why?
Too many people are expecting it to go up only. We definitely have to go down first before 60k, we ALWAYS do.
Best I can do is:
=>48k=>41k
>TA
you might as well draw a pentagram and light candles. trade on sentiment and fundamentals, indicators are woo
In order to get a good perspective of bitcoin's potential, you need to take a good look at the treasury market. The US cannot afford to pay real positive rates on their debt, which means that over the long-term, bondholders always lose. Bitcoin provides an clear and superior alternative.
nagger you could make that same argument for any other equity. Trasheries are used becauses they are guaranted by the biggest mob on the planet and many funds are required to buy them.
Name the equity that can replace a bond, nagger.
My RSI analysis also checks out. Look at the Weekly bitcoin chart, youll see the pattern of how bitcoin price behaves.
Everytime RSI hits the bottom, the price will also bottom. Two examples of this occurred during the bottom of 2015 and 2018. From there it slowly grinds upward till it reaches RSI overbought area.
Bitcoin likes to "prolong" this overbought area of RSI by making new highs after new highs and eventually weakens as there are no more buyers to make it higher.
The only difference I see prior 2021 bull run was the covid black swan event. IF there are not such event happened during that time, Bitcoin could likely already see 100k per bitcoin, and we are supposedly crabbing between 50-70k now. I just like to blame covid because nobody knew it happen. So my conclusion to this is bitcoin's 100k mission is delayed due to covid and I don't think it is cancelled entirely.
sorry for my bad english. trying to be as human sounding as possible.
>blame covid because nobody knew it happen
how did you make it from redit to here? serious question..
>2019 was the year of CEO exits. Thanks to 160 chiefs leaving their posts in December, 2019 totaled 1,640 departures by the heads of U.S. businesses, higher than the 1,484 exits in 2008 when the country was embroiled in the financial crisis, according to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas
dont forget all the government officials who sold before the news dropped. newfag
You retards keep talking about institutions and completely ignore corporations. To pick just one company Microsoft has $80bn cash on hand that’s depreciating at 7% a year. If they along with all other corporations decide to put a fraction of that cash into btc the market explodes.
we are here
According to this
https://www.tradinginsight.io
The market is bullish
how much are miners actively selling? does the halving coming up actually mean that much in terms of selling volume?