There are 3 possible pasts that could lead to the scenario described; picking box 1 ball 1, box 1 ball 2, or box 2 ball 1. All are equally likely events. Either ball from box 1 leads to picking the other gold ball from that box, while the gold ball in box 2 leads to picking the silver ball from that box. Thus you get a second gold ball in 2 out of 3 cases.

In the same way you've determined that box 3 is the source of 0% of first gold balls, you can also determine that box one is the source of twice as many first gold balls as box 2 is.

Gold ball drawn means you either picked from left or middle box. There are two possible options: you draw another gold ball, or you draw a grey ball. They are both equally probable.
The answer is 50%

Ooh that's a tricky one, let me think. If the first ball was gold that means you either picked from the box with two gold balls or one gold ball. So... a fifty percent chance?

The fact that there's two possibilities doesn't mean that the two possibilities are equally likely.

But there are three balls left after the first pick: two gold and one silver. How is that 50/50? Are you saying that if you pick a card from a deck, the chances are 50/50 for it to be the ace of spades: it either is ace if spades or it isn't?

There are 2 gold balls and 1 silver ball left. The mathematical chance is 2/3 for a gold -
Oh, wait, it says silver at the end. I thought it said gold.
So its 1/3rd or 33%.

this box can be the first or the second
NOT THE 3RD SINCE BOTH ALL THE THIRD BALL ARE SILVER AND YOU PICK UP A GOLDEN ONE.

SO EXIST ONLY 2 REALITY
the one wich you picked the gold ball from the first box o you will pick another gold
or the one where you picked the gold ball from the second so you will pick a silver.

Well 33% is the answer to the question his code is asking, which is the odds of getting a silver ball.
The answer to the question in OP is probability of a gold ball, which is 66%

[...]
There are 2 gold balls and 1 silver ball left. The mathematical chance is 2/3 for a gold -
Oh, wait, it says silver at the end. I thought it said gold.
So its 1/3rd or 33%.

You don't know exactly what happened in the first draw.
The probability that you drew from the first box is 2/3.
The probability that you drew from the second box is 1/3.
This is why the probability that the next ball is gold is 2/3.

>SO 2 POSSIBILITY
Yes >THE GOLDEN BALL WAS IN THE FIRST OR IN THE SECOND
Yes. And the probability that you drew from the first box is 2/3. The probability that you drew from the second box is 1/3.

Getting the first gold gives you better information about whether you're inside box 1 or 2 than 50/50. Conditional probability is never intuitive which is why israelites love using it to manipulate goyim. Statistics are just lying with numbers.

People who say 1/3 were dropped on their head as babies. >hurr two gold balls left but only one silver therefore 1/3
Riddle me this cuntfaces, what if there were 100 gold balls in the first box instead of two? Then the probability of picking gold as your next ball would be 99%?
NO BECAUSE YOU PICKED A BOX NOT A BALL YOU MORONS
And we know you didn't pick the last box, so there's only two possibilities left. 50:50
Amazingly ChatGPT can't get this right either so you fags might be literal NPCs

>If I pick ball #1 from box 1 that is no different from picking ball #2 from box 1
That is where you are wrong.
You pick a random box and then pick a random ball from that box
That means there are probability branches for each ball inside each box.
That's what you don't get (or are purposefully ignoring)

>You pick a random box and then pick a random ball from that box

This is where you’re actually wrong. Yes in real life this is true, but the initial conditions of the problem state that even if your first pick is ‘at random’ you will literally always get a gold ball first, no matter what. This doesn’t make sense in real life but it’s what the problem says happens. Everything starts after you pick a gold ball from a box.

Gold ball drawn means you either picked from left or middle box. There are two possible options: you draw another gold ball, or you draw a grey ball. They are both equally probable.
The answer is 50%

People who say 1/3rd understand statistics from a mathematical standpoint, but not how to apply it to real actual situations. The fact that you already pulled a gold ball is a given, and therefore the 2 silver box shouldn’t be included in the situation at all. It has been entirely removed from the situation before you begin calculating anything.

Ooh that's a tricky one, let me think. If the first ball was gold that means you either picked from the box with two gold balls or one gold ball. So... a fifty percent chance?

The probability could be any number on a number line of infinity. The balls are both silver and gold simultaneously. They won’t appear to me or any other observer as gold or silver balls until me or someone else looks into the box and the ball appears as either silver or gold as the result of a randomized quantum wave function collapse.

No, it’s not contrived. You’re just retarded. It says to choose from the same box, so you can eliminate the box with 2 silver balls immediately as you’ve already picked a box with a gold ball inside. Again you must draw from the same box, so either you’ve drawn from the box with two gold balls, and the next ball will also be gold, or you’ve drawn from the box with a gold and a silver ball, in which case the next ball will be silver. So it’s 50/50.

Per the famous Monty hall let’s make a deal problem, the issue is you don’t know if it was gold ball 1 or two that was drawn from the hypothetical box 1. So your possible scenarios are you drew the gold ball one from box one, gold ball 2 from box 1 or gold ball from box 2. As its probability, you have to consider both the gold ball one and 2 draws. Also the question says what are the odds you would draw a silver ball, which would be 1/3 but this board is so retarded people keep saying 2/3rds because that’s how the let’s make a deal problem is historically framed.

The silver silver box shouldn’t be included at all. And since you’ve already picked a gold ball, and only one box has two gold balls in it, the gold silver box should be considered as only having a silver ball in it. This question is about the boxes, not the balls

50% I think. Since you pull from the same box as 1st pick, and its guaranteed that you picked a gold one in 1st pick, the third box is eliminated. Thus, we are picking from either box 1 or 2.
If its box one, we pull gold.
If its box two, we pull silver (success).
Since we are pulling from either boxes then its a 50/50

You don't know exactly what happened in the first draw.
The probability that you drew from the first box is 2/3.
The probability that you drew from the second box is 1/3.
This is why the probability that the next ball is gold is 2/3.

>You don't know exactly what happened in the first draw.
It doesn’t say that. Maybe work on your reading comprehension then eat a bullet

You only know a part of what happened in the first draw. You know that it was a gold ball but you don't know from which box it was.
That's why you calculate the probability of the two possible things that might have happened.

RETARD
first case
is 100% SINCE ONLY 1 BOX AHVE GOLDEN BALL
second case is 100%
SINCE BOTH CASES YOU TAKE THE GOLDEN BALL
thrid cases is 50% because 1 of the golden ball boxes have a sinlver ball

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

The second case is 50/50 whether you picked from the first box or second box.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

PICK A GOLDEN BALL

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY YOU WILL PICK ANOTHER GOLDEN FROM PICKING IN THE SAME BOXES?

BOTH BOX 1 AND BOX 2 HAVE 2 GOLDEN BALL
SO AT 100% I WILL PICK A GOLDEN BALL.

IN NO WAY I CAN PICK A SILVER ONE

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

The question is really about the probability of which box you just picked from.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

AND THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING A GOLDEN BALL FROM A BOX WITH 2 GOLDEN BALL IS 100%

You picked a golden ball, but you do not know which one. Thus you must look at how the gold ball was acquired in order to know how likely you are to get another. To make the point more clear, consider a similar but exaggerated version of the puzzle.

There are two very large boxes; one contains 999,999 gold balls, while the other contains 999,998 silver balls and one gold ball. You chose a box and random and pluck a ball from it. The ball is gold. How likely is it that the next ball you take from the same box is silver?

The answer is clearly not 50%, because it is highly unlikely that the first gold ball came from the silver box.

i know is the first and the second
at 100% enot the 3rd

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>AND THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING A GOLDEN BALL FROM A BOX WITH 2 GOLDEN BALL IS 100%
Clearly you don't understand that this is looking at the problem in a different way than the original question, so I reworded it for your pedantic ass

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

HOLY SHIT

THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING A GOLDEN BALL FROM 2 BOXES FULL OF ONLY GOLDEN BALL IS 50%

YOU ARE INSANE

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You have already picked a golden ball. I am talking about the probability of which box you just pulled that ball from.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

SO THE NEXT ONE WILL BE A GOLDEN ONE FOR SURE SINCE BOTH BOXES HAVE 2 GOLDEN BALLS

[...]

nope
that problem consider the probability of the first pick

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>SO THE NEXT ONE WILL BE A GOLDEN ONE FOR SURE SINCE BOTH BOXES HAVE 2 GOLDEN BALLS
Clearly you just don't have the capability to look at the problem in any other way.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>clearly you can understand math is a social construct and that i am a woman with a dick

THE DEFINITION OF A PROBLEM IS CLEAR
WHAT IS THE % OF PICKING A GOLDEN BALL

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>RETARD
People falling for obvious trolls is funny.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

nah youre the fucking retard

the odds are 50/50

anything more complicated then that is you trying to convince yourself that youre smart and we all know shitalians arent smart

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>No argument
HOW I CAN BE 50% AND 50%
IF I CAN ONLY PICKING GOLDEN BALLS?

HOW?
HOW I CAN PICK A SILVER ONE?

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

left box and right box cancel each other out

leaving you with just the middle one, you fucking over grown shit stain

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

HOW I CAN PICK A SILVER BALL?

HOW I CAN PICK A SILVER BALL FROM 2 BOXES WITH JUST GOLDEN BALLS?

NO SENSE

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

got damn, no wonder your country hasnt innovated in technology since never, too busy stuffing your face with ragu sauce

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

no wonder your country created trannies.

when you call this shit logic

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

its simple logic if youre smart

if you know know the answer simply by looking at the picture then your iq is that of a retard

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

YEAP
being smart mean calling a golden ball silver?

tranny logic

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>clearly you can understand math is a social construct and that i am a woman with a dick

THE DEFINITION OF A PROBLEM IS CLEAR
WHAT IS THE % OF PICKING A GOLDEN BALL

>that's the correct thing to do here too.
YOU TOOK A GOLDEN BALL ATT HE FIRST PICK

NO MATTER WHAT
YOU AHVE A GOLDEN BALL
THIS FORCE YOUR BOX TO BE THE FIRST OR THE SECOND

lol
He's having a meltdown

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>no argument
to reddit now

But there are three balls left after the first pick: two gold and one silver. How is that 50/50? Are you saying that if you pick a card from a deck, the chances are 50/50 for it to be the ace of spades: it either is ace if spades or it isn't?

> three balls
ONLY 2
THE 3RD BOX IS ELIMIANTED SINCE LACK OF GOLDEN BOX

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

This. The 3rd box is obviously elimianted because it doesn't have a golden box.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

O.K., I see. You're a fucking IQ 68 retard.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

truly a fucking retard

this answare separe naggers to whites
THIS IS OT MONTHY PHYTON RETARD

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You are picking out BALLS, not BOXES, you fucking inbred nagger.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

THE BOXES IS WHERE THE BALLS ARE

THE BOXES EXIST
YOU CAN0T DELETE THEM

THE PROBLEM TELL TO YOU
PICK FROM THE SAME BOX

IN THE SAME BOX OF 2 SILVER BALLS CAN'T EXIST A GOLDEN ONE

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You can't even speak English. This is fucking priceless. Can you produce a coherent sentence in Italian? We can try and translate it with Google Translate then.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>get btfo >blab english
shit language for retards like you

you will never understand math

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You understand no math nor English. Double retarded Italian nagger. You are the naggers of Europe. Just slightly fairer than the naggers of Malta, but you're pretty close there.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

tranny the post

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

And the probability that the ball you just picked came from box 1 or 2 is influenced by the frequency of gold balls in those boxes.

Here, for anyone arguing for 50/50, simply point out where my code is wrong. It shows approximately 33.33%.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

FIRST CASE
GOLDEN BALL FROM BOX 1
SECOND CASE
GOLDEN BALL FROM BOX 2

GOLDEN BALL 1,2 AND 3 DO NOT EXIST
IS JUST IN YOUR FUCKING BRAIN.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Oh okay, now simply express that in code.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

set 1:{G,G}
set 2{G,S}
set 3{S,S}

if G = True then is not in set 3

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Wow, so smart. It should be easy for you you write Python, right?

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>phyton
learn C idiot

objects programming is for paeets and trannies

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Oh, my bad, I thought I was picking a good prototyping and math language but I guess I was wrong. My bad. I rewrote in C, which was the first language I ever learned, just for you. You're able to fix it now, right?

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

WHY 3?

box 3 do not exist since will never be included in the calculation

there is 0% any balls you take is from box 3

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>box 3 do not exist
Fine, box 3 does not exist

2 boxes
G G
G S

You pick a random ball out of those and it is gold. You either chose
1) Box 1 Ball 1
2) Box 1 Ball 2
3) Box 2 Ball 1

What are the odds the other ball in that same box is gold?
1) 100%
2) 100%
3) 0%

1/3 + 1/3 + 0/3 = 2/3rds

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

BOX 1 BALL 1
BOX 1 BALL 2

ARE THE SAME FUCKING CASES

BALL EXTRACT FROM BOX 1
BALL EXTRACT FROM BOX 2

THESE ARE THE ONLY 2 CASES OF THE FIRST PICKING

THE GOLDEN BALL 1 OR 2 DO NOT CHAGE THE CASE

YOU ARE CREATING YOUR OWN LOGIC ACCORDING WITH BALLS

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>BOX 1 BALL 1 >BOX 1 BALL 2 >ARE THE SAME FUCKING CASES
And there we have the problem here and why you fucktards can't figure it out
You don't understand English.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

FUCKING LOL
bitches about english?

YOU PICK A GOLDEN BALL
WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE IF IS 1 OR 2?

THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE BOX YOU TAKE IT

TARD

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

There are 3 gold balls, when you draw the first ball imagine that there is an equal chance of that ball being any of the 3 gold balls. Work out the odds from there.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

THERE ARE 2 BOXES WITH GOLD BALL

WHICH OF THE 2 YOU PICK FROM THE FIRST BO IS IRRELEVANT

IS THE SAME OBJECT A GOLD BALL

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Imagine the first box has an infinity of gold balls and the second box has a near infinity of gray balls (except 1 gold ball).
Explain how the situation is not a 50/50 anyway if the first pick being gold is a precondition.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Add the third box.
Imagine the first box has an infinity of gold balls, the second box has a near infinity of gray balls (except 1 gold ball) and the third box has infinity gray balls.
When you draw the gold ball, will you think it was equally likely that you picked box 1 and 2?

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

There could be an infinity of golden balls inside the first one and a near infinity of the gray balls inside the second and it still wouldnt change the probability.

Get it?
You pick the SET(box) of events. Once the box is chosen and the precondition (the pick of gold) is met you need to keep drawing from it.
The precondition makes it a 50/50. Even if it's one in a million to meet it.

FUCKING LOL
bitches about english?

YOU PICK A GOLDEN BALL
WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE IF IS 1 OR 2?

THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE BOX YOU TAKE IT

TARD

Don't get so upset with retards lmao.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

can't belive they are serious

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>There could be an infinity of golden balls inside the first one and a near infinity of the gray balls inside the second and it still wouldnt change the probability.
This is your brain on retardation

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

retard confirmed.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You pick between the boxes einstein.
You dont pick one of the infinite balls.
YOU PICK ONE OF 3 BOXES
Once you pick a box you are forced to keep drawing from it.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>You dont pick one of the infinite balls.
It literally says you pick a ball out of that box
You are an embarrassment to your family and your friends talk about you behind your back

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Add a hundred gold balls to the first box. That will ensure you always pick the first box of three according to your retarded logic.
I guess the universe will guide your hand towards it fucking kek.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Absurd. Wanna game that out? The moment we actually start filling boxes with marbles, or just rolling dice and flipping coins to simulate this scenario you claim falls apart.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Yes but that’s a different situation, because real life doesn’t have the set initial conditions that a hypothetical problem can have.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Maybe they don't teach americans to think?
Maybe they don't teach them that new data UPDATES the problem, in this case, into a new problem.
I pity them.
THIS is why boeing is bankrupt, being only able to make planes that crash into the ground in 2023, and Airbus are eating their lunch.
THIS simple logic problem explains a lot about laughable inflexible americans in 2023.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>starts by picking from box 2 >can only pick from same box >doesn't know he has box 2 >"Hmmmm today I will say I have 2/3rds odds because the other box can provide me two golds" >pulls silver like a nagger

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>ignores the actual facts >response with nonsense
You're worse than a flat earther and your parents are ashamed of you

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

What part of >Can only pick from the same box
Do you not get?
Detach yourself immediately from the concept that you have any choice apart from your selected box.
You've already narrowed down that only two boxes have golds. Two options - remember that.
You now have to deduce what your odds are. If you pull the gold from the box, you can either pull a gold from the 1 box, or a silver from the 2 box. By this deduction, it is 50%.
Trying to add the odds from other boxes when their total sums have zero relevance is why you end up with 2/3rds.
It's 50%. Eat shit, brainlet.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

They won't listen. They're your 'fellow americans', namely low-IQs who think of themselves as real humans.
You are a pearl among turds in your usa. Consider moving to a real nation with a future?

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>Consider moving to a real nation with a future?
I appreciate the suggestion, but I'm fine where I live. If I lived with these literal apes, I would have moved already.
Also there's the prospect of nuclear armageddon on the horizon, so I'm just waiting to see whether it's all posturing or a potential reality, and I would rather be as far away from the theoretical danger zones.
So I WILL say that with that in mind, I'm quite happy where I am.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Fare ye well, fren.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Good luck to you, brother

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>You now have to deduce what your odds are. If you pull the gold from the box, you can either pull a gold from the 1 box, or a silver from the 2 box.
Yes >By this deduction, it is 50%.
No.

>Trying to add the odds from other boxes when their total sums have zero relevance is why you end up with 2/3rds.
All of the boxes are relevant because you don't know what happened in the first draw so the probability from the first draw is what decides the probability that you have the box with 2 gold in front of you.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

This looks correct. So is the answer 1/3?

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Well 33% is the answer to the question his code is asking, which is the odds of getting a silver ball.
The answer to the question in OP is probability of a gold ball, which is 66%

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

BOX 1 AND BOX 2
the answare is 50% and 50%

box 3 is irrelecant

Change the word "gold" for 1, 2 and 3. and silver for 4, 5 and 6. Your first ball is 1, 2 OR 3 (gold), w hat are the chances your next ball from the same box is also 1, 2 OR 3 (gold)?
If you picked 1, the next one is 2 (gold)
If you picked 2, the next one is 1 (gold)
If you picked 3, the next one is 4 (silver)
Gold 2/3, Silver 1/3
I fucking hate you dumb amerimutts, no wonder China is beating the shit out of your country

1 AND 2 AS FIRST PICK

IS EQUAL
A GOLD BALL FROM BOX1
YOU ARE INFLATUATION THE RESULT

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

So 2/3. Interesting

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

IS 50%

TAKE WHICHEVER BALL FROM BOX 1 DO NOT CHANGE THE PREMISE

YOU TAKE A GOLD BALL
IS IRRELEVAN WHICH BALL IS BUT IN WHICH BOX IT IS

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Check the OP again.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>Check the OP again.
Oops, my bad anon
I've seen the same image asking about gold.
But we agree though, and the 50/50 people are just trolling retards.
Cheers.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

No worries

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

2/3 are breakfast naggers

box 3 is irrelevant

ball 1 and 2 are the same cases

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

you don't make a choice in the second step, there is only 1 random choice and only 1 possible way to assign that random choice a probability and it is 1/3

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

THE PROBLEM TELL ME I PICKED A GOLDEN BALL THIS GOLDEN BALL SELECT THE BOX I AM FORCED TO USE.

WHICHEVER GOLDEN BALL I TAKE FROM THE FIRST BOX IS IRRELEVANT

IN THE SECOND STEP I AM FORCED TO TAKE THE SECOND GOLDEN BALL

IS JUST 1 CASES
BALL FROM BOX 1

THIS IS A BOX PROBLEM

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

you're right, but I still feel there's something missing

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>random.shuffle(random box)
YOUR CODE IS WRONG
YOU ARE PICKING FROM SAME BOX NOT A RANDOM BOX

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

He's doing that between every simulation, not between the two draws

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

YOU ARE NOT PICKING FROM A RANDOM BOX
YOU ARE PICKING FROM SAME BOX YOU PICKED A GOLD BALL FROM

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Read the code again. He's picking from the same box.
He's just repeating this multiple times and the shuffling is between every experiment, not between the two draws.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You have to start with picking a gold ball and then picking again from same box.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Yes I am. >random_box = random.choice(boxes).copy()
This is where the random box is determined. This random box is never redefined for each case.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You start with picking a golden ball.
YOU HAVE THIS BALL FROM THE BOX YOU PICKED FROM.
NOW WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THE NEXT BALL FROM THE SAME BOX BEING GOLDEN.
THE BOX ISN'T RANDOM
YOU ALRADY HAVE THE BOX THAT YOU PICKED THE FRIST GOLDEN BALL FROM.
YOU ONLY HAVE ONE BOX CHOICE AND THAT IS THE BOX YOU PICKED THE GOLD BALL FROM

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

That's how the question works. It's predicated on the fact that the first ball you pick is gold: >It's a gold ball.
You must then pick the next ball from the same box.
I will ask once again: if you think this should work somewhat differently, show it in code. Hell, I will accept pseudocode.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Because the first pick isn't included.
You already picked the golden ball.
Its established you have a gold ball in your hand.
So, from there, what are the chances of picking another gold ball.
You are either going to pick a gold ball or silver.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You don't know exactly what happened in the first pick. You only know a part of what happened, but there are two different things that can have happened and they're not equally likely. That's why the probability from the first pick is relevant.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

The baseline is that you have a gold ball, you already picked a gold ball.
You start from having a gold ball in your hand, then picking from the same box.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Hopefully this helps.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

how did you get a 4th box?

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You picked a gold ball. The first box has two gold balls.
How do you know which of the two gold balls you picked? They are two separate balls.
You have to consider both outcomes. The one where you picked the gold ball on the left and the one where you picked the gold ball on the right.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

The box doesn't matter, what matters is how many balls are left over. Which is one ball, that could be either gold or silver.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>The baseline is that you have a gold ball, you already picked a gold ball.
This doesn't mean that you know exactly what happened in the first draw.
The outcome of the next draw depends on how you got point where you have the gold ball in your hand.
You don't know which box you picked so the probability of the next ball being gold depends on whether it was the first or the second box you picked.
Because you have a gold ball, the probability that it was the first box you picked is 2/3.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

The box doesn't matter.
You already established a box, when you picked the golden ball.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You already picked a box but you don't know which box you picked.
You do know however that the probability that it was the first box you picked is 2/3 and the probability that it was the second box you picked is 1/3.
If you picked the first box, the next ball will be gold so the probability of the next ball being gold is 2/3.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

The question is predicated on everything that came before it. This is evidenced by the wording of the question. >the next ball
Implying that we have just picked one ball out. This process of picking the ball was just described in detail, which is also modeled in my code exactly as written. >the same box
Implying we are picking from the same box we just picked from, again which was described in detail.

What you want is to disregard the pick we just made, which is to ignore the wording of both the entire problem and the question itself, as well as just common sense and math question standards.

Instead of picking "the same box", you want to average the chance of pulling a ball out of all boxes with at least one gold ball.

It's already been established that you picked a gold ball, from a box with two balls.
Now the question starts.
What are the chances that you pick a gold ball from that SAME box.
You only have 1 ball left in the box.
Now if you have the gold ball from the g/g box, the other one is gold.
Now if you have the gold ball from the g/s box, its silver.
There are only two out comes. You don't include the first ball you picked. We already know it's a gold ball.
One is gold, one is silver.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

IS 50%

TAKE WHICHEVER BALL FROM BOX 1 DO NOT CHANGE THE PREMISE

YOU TAKE A GOLD BALL
IS IRRELEVAN WHICH BALL IS BUT IN WHICH BOX IT IS

The disconnect is calculating the probability that the gold you chose was from the double gold. There are higher chances that that was the case.

Something like a reverse monty hall. Where it's more likely you're already on the prize box due to your having had a higher chance of being on it in the first place from what you were shown. (note that you selected the first gold at random and it wasn't just given)

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You people really need to be more specific because it's really hard to pin down what you think my code is doing wrong and what the original question says, since your understanding of both is poor. >Because the first pick isn't included.
I'm assuming that you mean the question is saying that the first pick isn't included, because it is certainly included in my code.
The question states: >You pick a box at random >You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random >It's a gold ball >What is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will be silver?
Nowhere in there does it say to discount your first pick. In fact, your first pick is integral to determining which box you just picked from, which is the major unknown, and given the fact that it says that you pick the next ball from the same box I would think it says the opposite.
What you would be looking for is a question something like this: >What is the probability that you could pick another gold ball from a box that you can pick a gold ball from?
In contrast, the question lays out a series of steps which I follow very carefully in my code, including only counting cases where I picked a gold ball first.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You do not include the first pick because it is already established that you already have the gold ball.
here

The baseline is that you have a gold ball, you already picked a gold ball.
You start from having a gold ball in your hand, then picking from the same box.

simple as

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You have addressed precisely none of my points, you have also produced no code. Congratulations

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

again, the first pick should not be included in the question because the question is asked after you already have a gold ball in hand. then you pick from the same box. ALREADY having a gold ball, form that box.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

And again, the question very clearly lays out the steps you take to pick your box and that gold ball ball and at no point in the question do you disregard what just happened.
You are looking for this question: >For every box which contains a gold ball, what are the chances that you could pick another gold ball out?
This would discount the first pick. Why even describe the process of making the first pick in the question?

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Wrong, the box doesn't matter. You start with a golden ball.
The start of the question is AFTER you already picked a box and a golden ball from it.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

The question is predicated on everything that came before it. This is evidenced by the wording of the question. >the next ball
Implying that we have just picked one ball out. This process of picking the ball was just described in detail, which is also modeled in my code exactly as written. >the same box
Implying we are picking from the same box we just picked from, again which was described in detail.

What you want is to disregard the pick we just made, which is to ignore the wording of both the entire problem and the question itself, as well as just common sense and math question standards.

Instead of picking "the same box", you want to average the chance of pulling a ball out of all boxes with at least one gold ball.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

I don’t code, but according to the construction of the problem:
G-G box: 50% chance to be chosen
G-S box: 50% chance to be chosen
S-S box: 0% chance to be chosen

G-G: 100% to draw gold first
G-S: 100% to draw gold first

This is why codefags are failing this test.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

No interpretation of that statement makes sense.
I pick a random box every instance of the experiment: >random_box = random.choice(boxes).copy()
If you mean that I'm taking the second ball out of the same box, yes, that's part of the question: >What is the probability that the next ball you take from the SAME BOX will be silver?

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

THE BASE LINE IS THAT YOU PICK A GOLD BALL
YOU HAVE TO START AT PICKING A GOLD BALL
AND THEN PICK FORM THE SAME BOX

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

The first pick parameter is unnecessary

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You're shuffling on a while loop. Shuffling Each time. The pick has already happened. You have two boxes to choose from as the third has been eliminated. The choice is down to 1 of two boxes not 3/4 balls. You have already chosen one of the boxes and are picking from it again. It either has 1 silver or one gold in it. It does not have 2 golds and a silver.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Now show how it should work in code.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Here ya go.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

For simplicity: You never draw ball from the all silver box, that's part of the question.
So you have two boxes in front of you. Those two boxes contain 4 balls. What are your chances of picking gold vs silver? Is it 50/50?
No it's 3:1
But you already picked 1 gold, so now it's 2:1 of picking another gold.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

HOLY SHIT

2 balls exist in Box 1
2 balss exist in Box 2

after the first Pic
ONLY 1 SINGLE BALL EXIST IN THE BOX I CHOOSE
this ball can only be Gold or Silver

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Dude, seriously explain me how picking one ball out of the pool of four balls leaves only two balls remaining?

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

if you pick a golden ball from a box that box can't be a box with 2 silver balls
TARD

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

it depends on if you see the two gold balls in the gold box as unique objects

if you dont it is 1/2 but if you do it becomes 1/3
it would be natural to assume they are unique since in the real world they would be. but by words they are not since we havent given them unique identities yet

1/3 is right, but saying 1/2 doesnt make you a retard

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

if you DONT know

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>if you [don't] know know the answer simply by looking at the picture then your iq is that of a retard
You got it wrong, THOUGH

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

dont bother anon, these midwits are beyond saving

they will never understand how or why it is 50/50

they cant be helped, just pity them and move on

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

i can understand this retardism on the monty phyton problem.

>SO 2 POSSIBILITY
Yes >THE GOLDEN BALL WAS IN THE FIRST OR IN THE SECOND
Yes. And the probability that you drew from the first box is 2/3. The probability that you drew from the second box is 1/3.

The probabilities involved with the first draw are irrelevant to the question being asked, and therefore can’t factor in to the statistical probability. The question isn’t asking what the probability is assuming you start at the very beginning, it’s asking what the probability is (given this situation in which you’ve already drawn a gold ball). The premise is basically creating a new universe with no history, where time begins with a gold ball in your hand from either box 1 or box 2.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You only know a part of what happened in the first draw. You know that it was a gold ball but you don't know from which box it was.
That's why you calculate the probability of the two possible things that might have happened.
Look at the example in this image.

Here you can read it explained with another example next to it

It's the same thing.

SO THE NEXT ONE WILL BE A GOLDEN ONE FOR SURE SINCE BOTH BOXES HAVE 2 GOLDEN BALLS
[...]
nope
that problem consider the probability of the first pick

That post was only replying to you by accident, I meant to link the picture to the other poster I was talking to.
And yes, it's considering the probability of the first draw and that's the correct thing to do here too.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>that's the correct thing to do here too.
YOU TOOK A GOLDEN BALL ATT HE FIRST PICK

NO MATTER WHAT
YOU AHVE A GOLDEN BALL
THIS FORCE YOUR BOX TO BE THE FIRST OR THE SECOND

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>THIS FORCE YOUR BOX TO BE THE FIRST OR THE SECOND
Yes exactly. And the probability that it was the first box is 2/3

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

SO IS 50%
THE FIRST PICK IS 1 GOLDEN BALL FROM THE FIRST OR 1 FROM THE SECOND BOX.

THE FIRST PICK DO NOT MAKE DIFFERENCE FROM THE BALLS IN THE FIRST BOX

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>You only know a part of what happened in the first draw. You know that it was a gold ball but you don't know from which box it was.

Yes. But it is irrelevant. Since it doesn’t matter which of the two golden balls from box 1 you might have picked, and there being 2 golden balls in that box didn’t actually increase your chance of picking that actual box, the situation we’re actually concerned with is basically either you have a box in front of you with another gold ball in it, or a box with a silver ball in it. The question is about the boxes, not the balls.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

It's not irrelevant what happened in the first draw. It's more likely that it was the first box you picked.
Here you can compare it to another example that's the same problem but with different numbers. It can help explain why you calculate the probabilities of two different things that might have happened in the first draw.

You picked a golden ball, but you do not know which one. Thus you must look at how the gold ball was acquired in order to know how likely you are to get another. To make the point more clear, consider a similar but exaggerated version of the puzzle.

There are two very large boxes; one contains 999,999 gold balls, while the other contains 999,998 silver balls and one gold ball. You chose a box and random and pluck a ball from it. The ball is gold. How likely is it that the next ball you take from the same box is silver?

The answer is clearly not 50%, because it is highly unlikely that the first gold ball came from the silver box.

50/50 chance >3 boxes >you pull a GOLD ball >asks "What are the chances you'll pull a SILVER ball from the SAME BOX?" >you eliminated the 3rd box (silver/silver/) by pulling a gold ball >2 boxes left, one has a silver ball in it, the other does not

>YOU HAVE A 50/50 CHANCE NOW OF PULLING THE SILVER BALL

Because that is the correct answer. You have 1/3 chance of pulling silver ball.
Since you don't know what box is before you, you can pick anything remaining.
which is GOLD GOLD SILVER
How in the fuck you make it 50/50

It’s because of the initial conditions of the problem, which state you picked a gold ball. The real actual probabilities of this choice (that would actually exist in the physical world if we were doing this) don’t matter because the initial conditions state you picked a gold ball. It’s essentially saying that even if you chose the box with 1 gold and 1 silver, you pick the gold ball from this box 100% of the time because that is what the initial conditions of the problem state. So you have to view this problem as if you have either box 1 or box 2 in front of you, with a gold ball from each of these boxes already removed, leading to a box with a gold ball in it and a box with a silver ball in it, which is why people are saying 50/50. This can’t work in real life because we have to concern ourselves with the first choice, but the hypothetical scenario the question describes has its initial conditions set in stone, so in this hypothetical thought experiment it doesn’t actually matter that choosing a gold ball means it’s more likely that you chose box 1 (which is true and I’m not debating that the probability would be 1/3rd in real life where we don’t have ironclad initial conditions altering things).

>it doesn’t actually matter that choosing a gold ball means it’s more likely that you chose box 1
Yes it does, because that means it's more likely that it's box 1 you have in front of you.

In real life yes, but the initial conditions of this problem mean that even if you choose box 2, you will pick the gold ball instead of the silver ball in the first pick 100% of the time, because the problem says you picked a gold ball. Obviously this doesn’t make sense in real life, but the initial conditions of the problem make it so in this thought experiment.

Theoretically: 50/50 (assuming we aren't using the 49/51 ratio from real life)

Practically greater than that, with many more females due to the fact that some men have genetic disorders which will produce only girls and will simply keep producing forever, to the upper limit of biology obviously.

>option 1: pull a gold ball from the gold/gold box >option 2: pull a gold ball from the gold/silver box >both options result in the removal of the gold ball, hence the two follow-up options are gold and silver
50%.

Getting the first gold gives you better information about whether you're inside box 1 or 2 than 50/50. Conditional probability is never intuitive which is why israelites love using it to manipulate goyim. Statistics are just lying with numbers.

We can test this empirically. For this test you will need a six sided die and a coin.

First, roll the die. A 1-2 represents the first box, a 3-4 the second, a 5-6 the third.

If you chose the third box, start over. The initial condition cannot be met.

If you chose the second box, flip a coin. On heads, you chose the gold ball, making this a valid attempt. The next ball will be silver, so record one silver result. On tails, you chose the silver ball. This is an invalid attempt, so start over.

If you chose the first box, flip a coin. On heads or tails you chose a gold ball, so this is a valid and are guaranteed to draw the other gold next, so record a gold result.

Do this until you have... 30 results marked. should be enough to make my point clear.

I agree, go ahead and flip a coin to decide between box one or two instead. It makes no difference other than saving time on failed setups.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

you didn0t read the part of the problem which is written

TAKE THE BALL FROM THE SAME BOX.
this problem is about boxes not balls.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

I did read it. The first step of the setup is to chose a box, the second to choose a ball from the box. If the ball is not gold we start over, as the initial conditions were not met. Once the initial conditions are met we simply look at what other ball is still in the box, and record that as our second choice and thus the result of that iteration of the test.

Knowing the layouts of the boxes, knowing the color of the balls in each AND knowing your own first selection means the answer is NOT what stats and similar mathematical nonsense suggests.
Ital-fren has nailed it.

Lol, how can you guys be so retarded. It is equivalent to choosing 1 box with 2g and the probability of doing that is 1/3 because there is only 1 box that satisfies the conditions of the problem

this has nothing to do with conditional probabilities. the inevitable outcome of the experiment is choosing 1 box, there are 3 boxes, if you choose randomly then the probability that you end up with 2g is 1/3.

You have to take into account the probability of picking gold first when computing the conditional probability of being inside box 1 given picking gold first. >P(box 1 | 1st gold) = P(1st gold | box 1) * P(box 1) / P(1st gold) by Bayes' Theorem >P(1st gold | box 1) is 1 since there are only gold balls in box 1 >P(box 1) is 1/3 since boxes are picked randomly at the start >P(1st gold) is 1/2 since boxes and balls are picked randomly at the start

The result is equal, but they are different events if you do a brute force tally of all possible outcomes. >G1-G2 >G2-G1 >G3-S1 >S1-G3 >S2-S3 >S3-S2
The statement "the first ball is golden" gets rid of the last three outcomes, leaving you with >G1-G2 >G2-G1 >G3-S1
Of the 3 remaining outcomes, 2 are gold and 1 is silver. 50%-ers either collapse the first two events into one or they ignore the randomness of the first ball and tally the events as simply >G2 >S1

THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL >THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL
THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL
THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START >THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START
THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START
THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL >THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL
THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL
THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START >THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START
THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START
THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL >THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL
THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL
THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START >THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START
THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START
THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL >THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL
THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL
THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START >THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START
THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

>"It's isn't 50%" fags seethe in this thread
You have a 50% chance to pick a second gold ball from the same box since there are only two colors.
Likewise, there are two other boxes, one that only has two of the same color (silver in this case), and then a possibility that one of the boxes is a mix with one of each, or has the same (gold) color.
You only have a 25% chance to get another gold from a different box with the information you have in mind, but as one of those boxes (silver-only) has been nixed and you can only pull from the same box, the odds are only 50% and can ONLY be 50%.

You’re basically admitting that you can’t fathom all possible outcomes to the situation at hand.
You don’t know which gold ball you chose so the outcomes are:
You picked gold ball one and you next ball is gold ball two.
You picked gold ball two and your next outcome is gold ball one.
You picked gold ball three and your next outcome is silver ball one.
So how would you feel if you didn’t eat breakfast?

2/3fags are bootlicking retards who can’t think for themselves. They are vaccinated for sure.

We are doing 600,000 trials.
200k times you pick box 1 >100k g1-g2 >100k g2-g1
200k times you pick box 2 >100k g3-s1 >100k s1-g3
200k times you pick box 3 >100k s2-s3 >100k s3-s2

2/3fags are removing removing the last half of trials because >tfw no gold. This leaves them with 200k g-g trials and 100k g-s trials. 2/3, ezpz.

But this is not the problem being presented. You are selecting a box and the box produces a gold first. This is stated in the problem. You could have a box with one gold and a million silver in it and you would still pick the gold ball without fail. In other words, according to the construction of the problem, no matter how many times you pick the g-s box, you WILL draw a gold ball out first. It does not matter if this is improbable in reality, it is HARDCODED into the problem. You WILL choose a gold ball first no matter what.

So 50chads remove the latter third of trials because >tfw no gold. But they KEEP ALL TRIALS IN WHICH BOX 2 WAS SELECTED. This is because the only selection meting made is of boxes, not balls. You choose a box and you get gold EVERY TIME.

This preselection changes how it works out. The reason 2/3fags get it wrong is because of how they are excluding the trials (by the ball, rather than by the box).

Knowing you got a gold ball allows you to exclude the S-S draws because it is impossible to draw a gold ball from a box with no gold ball. It is however possible to draw a gold ball from a G-S box. Because the problem HARD CODES drawing a gold ball, you will ALWAYS draw a gold ball first from the G-S box. It is literally how the problem is constructed.

So if it is the construction of the problem that leads to this confusion, how would we word it to make 2/3 the correct answer?

It’s a really subtle change, which is why so many people fuck this up: >IF you choose a gold ball, what is the probability te next ball from the same box will also be gold.

That “if” is the game changer. At this point the 2/3fags are correctly handling how to solve this.

But it doesn’t say “if”, it is hardcoded you get a gold ball. So fucking midwits go google the answer to a different problem or write some shitty code to answer this “if” question then pretend it applies to the picture in the OP. It does not.

This is why 2/3fags can not defend their answer while 50chads can. 50chads are grappling with the problem as presented while 2/3fags are attempting (and failing) to find an authoritative answer to a different fucking problem.

They will prove they do not understand by arguing with me about how this “if” doesn’t change anything. They probably didn’t even finish reading this far.

The fact that it's given that you picked a gold ball doesn't tell you everything about what happened in the first draw. You know you got a gold ball but don't know which box you have chosen. Because you don't know what happened in the first draw, you look at the probabilities of what happened. Two different things can have happened, either you picked box 1 or you picked box 2, and the probability that you drew from the first box is 2/3.
The probability that you drew from the second box is 1/3.

How about you learn to read, homosexual? You aren’t drawing from a bag of four balls, it’s two boxes with two balls each. You have already selected a box. There is a 50% chance you picked the right box. Learning your box has one gold ball in it changes nothing.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You have selected a box but you don't know which box you have selected.
When you draw the gold ball, you find out that the probability that it was the first box that you selected is 2/3.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Wrong. You clearly did not read my post, just like my post said you wouldn’t.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

I did read it, you didn't read

The fact that it's given that you picked a gold ball doesn't tell you everything about what happened in the first draw. You know you got a gold ball but don't know which box you have chosen. Because you don't know what happened in the first draw, you look at the probabilities of what happened. Two different things can have happened, either you picked box 1 or you picked box 2, and the probability that you drew from the first box is 2/3.
The probability that you drew from the second box is 1/3.

though.
"it is hardcoded you get a gold ball." doesn't mean that you know exactly what happened in the first draw. You know that the ball was gold, but there are still two different possibilities for what happened in the first draw.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

Okay, we’re going to use the exact same wording of the problem but now box 1 has 1000 gold and box 2 has 1 gold and 999 silver.

ACCORDING TO THE PROBLEM, what are your chances at drawing a gold first from box 2?
Hint: 100%

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

>ACCORDING TO THE PROBLEM, what are your chances at drawing a gold first from box 2? >Hint: 100%
You don't need the if at the beginning of the question for it to be about conditional probability.

2 weeks ago

Anonymous

You draw a gold ball unconditionally. Every time you repeat this problem you draw a gold ball, the problem says you draw a gold ball.

If you somehow managed to pick box 3 a ghost will turn a silver ball gold because it’s fucking necessitated by the fucking problem.

There is a 100% chance you pick gold first because that is literally what the problem says happens you fucking nagger >what do you mean? I did eat breakfast.
Kill yourself.

>You are selecting a box and the box produces a gold first. This is stated in the problem. You could have a box with one gold and a million silver in it and you would still pick the gold ball without fail. In other words, according to the construction of the problem, no matter how many times you pick the g-s box, you WILL draw a gold ball out first. It does not matter if this is improbable in reality, it is HARDCODED into the problem. You WILL choose a gold ball first no matter what.

This is simply not true. The problem implies that you grab a ball at random.

If the balls were stacked on top of each other like
G G S
G S S

and you always grabbed the top one, then yes this would be a valid answer and 50/50 would be correct. But it is not.

The problem says you pick a ball and it is gold. It is always gold. There are zero instances in which it is not gold. There could be 6 million silver balls in the box with one gold and you pick gold first every time no matter what.

This IQ test easily separates the low-IQs from the real humans. >HINT FROM SOMEONE WHO DESIGNS ALGORITHMS THAT CAN LEARN
The answer you are going to proudly give before having a smug look on your stupid face is wrong.
And even using most math will give you the wrong answer too.

there's one box with both gold and silver balls, out of three. The chance that you picked that box is 1 out of 3, or 1/3rd, or 33.333333%. That's the probability, it's simple.

nope, you're misreading the question. There's a bunch of distracting nonsense in there. You pick one box out of 3 and pull both balls from it, what's the probability that you picked the box with both gold and silver balls, that's the question.

its 50/50, anyway, whoever wrote the text its a retard, if the problem says >you pick box at random, you take a random ball, its a gold ball
then it was never random in the first place because the problem is not a dynamic one like some website, it should have just said >you pick a box, you take a gold ball
i know its just semantics but i can't stand it, maybe i'm autistic

Yes, because any ball pulled from the third box is an invalid start. Half of balls pulled from the second box are similarly invalid, and so are eliminated as well. Thus you have all pulls from the first box and half of pulls from the second box, and so must weigh the odds from the first box twice as heavily as from the second.

No see, you’re still using statistics for things that don’t matter because they don’t fit the initial conditions. The way the problem is worded, even though this doesn’t make sense in real life, is that you always choose the gold ball first if you pick box two. You don’t have to discard the 50% of times where you pull the silver ball first, because that simply will never happen given the stated initial conditions of the problem.

Yes, it’s a reading comprehension issue. One in two people in America can’t read above 6th grade and it’s a college level question. They don’t understand that they’ve been given a set of things that have already occurred and then asked to plot out all the possible outcomes. Plus most of the curriculum is nagger worship, dildo practice, and penis inspection.

to whoever is saying 1/3 or something like if the problem says >You take out a gold ball, what is the probability that the NEXT ball you take form the SAME box will be silver?
Then it means that one box is out by default from the fact that you take out a gold ball, the problem really its just on the first two boxes the third all silver one its just a distraction to make it seem more difficult

>These two sets of outcomes are identical, why did you duplicate them?
Imagine you have a box with 1,000,000 gold balls and 1 silver ball
You're saying there's 50/50 because the only two outcomes are gold and silver?
Each gold ball is a distinct choice.

You predicated your question on your instance that I said something that I did and have not. Therefor the premise of your question is invalid.
How would you feel if you didn’t have breakfast?

This is flawed logic, which becomes obvious if exaggerated. Instead of two ball boxes, use million ball boxes. One has all gold balls, the other has one gold and the rest silver. You blindly pick a box and then a ball. It is gold. How likely is it that the next ball from the same box is gold? Your system would claim 50/50, but I would claim it is all but certain; the only way the next ball is not silver is on that one in a million chance that I picked the box full of silvers and plucked out the singular gold within it.

Pretend you follow the problem presented but always pick box two. You are going to draw 1000 “first draws” from box two. How many are gold according to the problem as presented?

Hint: 1000, because it’s hardcoded into the fucking problem that you draw a gold ball. You can stuff infinite silver balls in the box and you still have a 100% chance of drawing gold first because that’s what the problem says happens.

Sure, because you have discarded those 99.9999% of cases where silvers were drawn. Once we reintroduce the first box, then out of two million picks and draws we would see (on average) a million golds from box 1, a single gold from box 2, and those 999,999 silver draws which are discarded as not meeting the scenario.

No, there are zero cases in which silver is drawn because the problem fucking states it is gold. If you run the problem over and over again it is gold every time if it is not gold, you did not follow directs and are not answering the correct problem.

Yes, but the conditions of the problem don’t have to make sense in reality. The problem doesn’t state ‘IF’ you choose a gold ball, what will the chances be. It states you pick a box and you ‘DO’ take a gold ball out of it. Therefore in the meta space this problem exists in, you will always 100% of the time pick the gold ball first from the box of a million silvers, even though this makes no sense in real life.

Even if you pick a different problem, there is only 1 random choice being made and that 1 random choice always has 1/n probability of success for any n.

What most americans, who have not been taught to think, tend to overlook is; >new data UPDATES the problem
Why is it so hard for low-IQ americans to comprehend this simple fact?

if you draw a gold ball, the chances are 2/3 that it was the first box. if you then just draw from the same box again, 2/3 chance it is another gold ball, 1/3 it's the silver ball of box 2.
arriving at a 50/50 chance would require to eliminate box 3, eliminate 1 gold ball from the remaining box with 2 balls and then drawing again.

You picked a box at random and pulled a gold ball. So it can't be the box with 2 silver. It's either the box with 2 gold or 1 gold 1 silver. Making your odds 50/50. Retard

Change the word "gold" for 1, 2 and 3. and silver for 4, 5 and 6. Your first ball is 1, 2 OR 3 (gold), w hat are the chances your next ball from the same box is also 1, 2 OR 3 (gold)?
If you picked 1, the next one is 2 (gold)
If you picked 2, the next one is 1 (gold)
If you picked 3, the next one is 4 (silver)
Gold 2/3, Silver 1/3
I fucking hate you dumb amerimutts, no wonder China is beating the shit out of your country

I never said anything about a third box
and again, read the post again

Change the word "gold" for 1, 2 and 3. and silver for 4, 5 and 6. Your first ball is 1, 2 OR 3 (gold), w hat are the chances your next ball from the same box is also 1, 2 OR 3 (gold)?
If you picked 1, the next one is 2 (gold)
If you picked 2, the next one is 1 (gold)
If you picked 3, the next one is 4 (silver)
Gold 2/3, Silver 1/3
I fucking hate you dumb amerimutts, no wonder China is beating the shit out of your country

Forget about the fucking gold color
If you only use the numbers, these are the possible combinations provided each time you picked the ball you got a different number for the sake of calculating the probability
First pick ball 1 > 2 you picked box 1
First pick ball 2 > 1 you picked box 1
First pick ball 3 > 4 you picked box 2

Understanding that americans, who consider themselves intelligent, ignore that new information UPDATES probabilities explains a lot about why the usa fails in almost everything it has ever done in its entire history.
Why are americans like this?

People who say 50% think these two questions are asking the same thing: >What is the average chance of picking out two gold balls from all boxes with at least one gold ball? >What is the chance of selecting a box at random, selecting a random gold ball, then selecting another gold ball from the same box?

you can't argue back and cry like the tranny you re

[...]

The disconnect is calculating the probability that the gold you chose was from the double gold. There are higher chances that that was the case.

Something like a reverse monty hall. Where it's more likely you're already on the prize box due to your having had a higher chance of being on it in the first place from what you were shown. (note that you selected the first gold at random and it wasn't just given)

THIS IS NOT A MONTY HALL
having more ball in a boxes do not change the result of picking boxes

It amuses me that the people who demand that the answer is 2/3 are answering a question they IMAGINE has been asked, rather than the question that HAS been asked.
This poor reading comprehension explains why they are failures in life and cannot understand why.

It's the same 3-4 people each time.
The all-caps Italy homosexual is obvious as fuck and spams constantly
I just respond to push this to bump limit ASAP

This thread is really sad.
Since you obviously did not pick from box 3, you either picked from box 1 or 2.
So 50%.

All that nonsense calculations are just wrong. People who come to the solution of 2/3 ommit that you must have dropped all the cases where you put your hand in box 3, otherwise you could not have come to the state where you hold a golden ball.

Try to use logic instead of statistics if you don't know how to do it correctly.

This meme is fascinating and amusing to me.
I LOVE reading the comments every time.
You get NPCs adamant that their rote math answer is correct because they imagine the question conforms to some probability problem in some textbook and they can appear 'smart', when in fact it is a trick question to weed out the unimaginative, the illiterate and the impractical from the workforce.
Americans amuse me.

>anon discovers a poll tax

how would you feel if you hadn't eaten breakfast?

fine, it happens all the time

Who eats breakfast?

Pretty shit, like usual. I skip breakfast most days because I'm poor.

I don't understand. I did eat breakfast.

Yeah what gives what a dumb question lul

askin' the important question right here

how would you feel if you hadn't posted this?

I didn't eat breakfast.

/fast/

You can't not eat breakfast - it is literally the first meal of the day.

Fucking Americans.

>Dominion controls the vote now. Only hax0rz can save muh democracy an sheit.

the probability is 0.5

only troons and women will disagree because their brains are feminized from hormones.

There are 3 possible pasts that could lead to the scenario described; picking box 1 ball 1, box 1 ball 2, or box 2 ball 1. All are equally likely events. Either ball from box 1 leads to picking the other gold ball from that box, while the gold ball in box 2 leads to picking the silver ball from that box. Thus you get a second gold ball in 2 out of 3 cases.

NOPE

the pick of the ball already happened.

gold balls of the first box are the same

do not change the result of the first pick

in set theory

(1,1) and (1,1) are the same

But the question implies that you already chose from box 1 or 2, since you have one gold ball. Sorry bud but you're a femboy now

In the same way you've determined that box 3 is the source of 0% of first gold balls, you can also determine that box one is the source of twice as many first gold balls as box 2 is.

>imagine a fictitious dream world where xyz happened

Perfect illustration of why statistics is from the devil. Fake and gay.

American Education

Looks like you don't get to vote anymore.

low IQ people can be wise

high IQ people can be un-wise

IQ is measure of goy-bility

it tells you how good of a goy you can be

Incorrect. The “wise” people you are thinking of are just high iq and uneducated. The unwise high iq are just apathetic.

When a fucker is hitting a solid 95-105 it’s readily apparent. There is no wisdom there. It’s dumb nagger all the way down.

Look at this brainlet cope lmao

>IQ measures gullibility

Said the dumb fuck who fell for the internet racism meme

Voting sucks

isn't it 66% or 2/3?

nope

3rd box is eliminated

This. You know already that you put your hand in box 1 or 2. Thus it becomes a true 50/50.

The fact that there's two possibilities doesn't mean that the two possibilities are equally likely.

But there are three balls left after the first pick: two gold and one silver. How is that 50/50? Are you saying that if you pick a card from a deck, the chances are 50/50 for it to be the ace of spades: it either is ace if spades or it isn't?

There is twice as much probability that you have put it on one though.

There are 2 gold balls and 1 silver ball left. The mathematical chance is 2/3 for a gold -

Oh, wait, it says silver at the end. I thought it said gold.

So its 1/3rd or 33%.

It says "from the same box" dumb shit

yes and

How would you feel if you took a gold ball from one of the boxes but then someone stole it from you?

>leaf

you are taking the ball from the same box, retard

it's 50/50

You are taking my balls in your mouth

You would have to have those in the first place, tranny

>no! They're MY balls now!

Poland

SINCE YOU PIC A GOLD BALL THEN YOU CAN HAVE THE FIRST OR THE SECOND BALL

IF YOU HAVE THE FIRST BO THEN THE BALL WILL BE GOLD

IF YOU AHVE THE SECOND BOX THE BALL WILL BE GRAY

COPE

There are three gold balls and three silver balls in total. 50/50. So it's 50%

from THE SAME BOX exist only 1 ball left.

this box can be the first or the second

NOT THE 3RD SINCE BOTH ALL THE THIRD BALL ARE SILVER AND YOU PICK UP A GOLDEN ONE.

SO EXIST ONLY 2 REALITY

the one wich you picked the gold ball from the first box o you will pick another gold

or the one where you picked the gold ball from the second so you will pick a silver.

50% since only 1 reality on 2 is right

lol

retards

if you take a gold ball

the only 2 possible box are the first and the second

the third is completely excluded since in no way the box you are taking the balls can be that

People who say 1/3 were dropped on their head as babies.

>hurr two gold balls left but only one silver therefore 1/3

Riddle me this cuntfaces, what if there were 100 gold balls in the first box instead of two? Then the probability of picking gold as your next ball would be 99%?

NO BECAUSE YOU PICKED A BOX NOT A BALL YOU MORONS

And we know you didn't pick the last box, so there's only two possibilities left. 50:50

Amazingly ChatGPT can't get this right either so you fags might be literal NPCs

>If I pick ball #1 from box 1 that is no different from picking ball #2 from box 1

That is where you are wrong.

You pick a random box and then pick a random ball from that box

That means there are probability branches for each ball inside each box.

That's what you don't get (or are purposefully ignoring)

nobody is this stupid, we are dealing with trolls every day here

>You pick a random box and then pick a random ball from that box

This is where you’re actually wrong. Yes in real life this is true, but the initial conditions of the problem state that even if your first pick is ‘at random’ you will literally always get a gold ball first, no matter what. This doesn’t make sense in real life but it’s what the problem says happens. Everything starts after you pick a gold ball from a box.

>This is where you’re actually wrong

I quoted the exact phrasing in the problem

You are a troll or a fucktard, either way die in a fire

50% and anyone who says otherwise should be drawn and quartered and his ashes scattered to the sea.

50/50. Anyone who says 1/3 or 2/3 is retarded

45 mph. Next.

Gold ball drawn means you either picked from left or middle box. There are two possible options: you draw another gold ball, or you draw a grey ball. They are both equally probable.

The answer is 50%

It should have a gender and race test first.

People who say 1/3rd understand statistics from a mathematical standpoint, but not how to apply it to real actual situations. The fact that you already pulled a gold ball is a given, and therefore the 2 silver box shouldn’t be included in the situation at all. It has been entirely removed from the situation before you begin calculating anything.

No, people who say anything/3 are simply retarded and bad at everything.

t. Mathematician specializing in statistics

You can always calculate the probability. You just have to quantify the choices. Throwing away options isn’t necessary.

No you need more people voting for consent to be manufactured.

Ooh that's a tricky one, let me think. If the first ball was gold that means you either picked from the box with two gold balls or one gold ball. So... a fifty percent chance?

This isn’t the question. You need to find the probability of choosing a gold/silver ball AFTER having chosen a gold ball.

He did that, the results array is only populated under the condition pickedball == gold.

The probability could be any number on a number line of infinity. The balls are both silver and gold simultaneously. They won’t appear to me or any other observer as gold or silver balls until me or someone else looks into the box and the ball appears as either silver or gold as the result of a randomized quantum wave function collapse.

>Should elections have an iq test so dumb people can't vote?

Thasss rayciss!

It’s just contrived. You can say 50% and pick from the same box or do a joint probability thing.

It’s not 3/5 because the boxes delineate your choice.

So you have 1 box which has a 50% given the draw. Another box that is 50%. And a third that is 100%.

Then you have the chance of choosing the 50% or the 100%.

So I dunno someone do that math.

No, it’s not contrived. You’re just retarded. It says to choose from the same box, so you can eliminate the box with 2 silver balls immediately as you’ve already picked a box with a gold ball inside. Again you must draw from the same box, so either you’ve drawn from the box with two gold balls, and the next ball will also be gold, or you’ve drawn from the box with a gold and a silver ball, in which case the next ball will be silver. So it’s 50/50.

Kys

Per the famous Monty hall let’s make a deal problem, the issue is you don’t know if it was gold ball 1 or two that was drawn from the hypothetical box 1. So your possible scenarios are you drew the gold ball one from box one, gold ball 2 from box 1 or gold ball from box 2. As its probability, you have to consider both the gold ball one and 2 draws. Also the question says what are the odds you would draw a silver ball, which would be 1/3 but this board is so retarded people keep saying 2/3rds because that’s how the let’s make a deal problem is historically framed.

Just put the LULZ captcha with only 2 try

1/3 will fail

Illustrating that the RNG is valid

You don’t know how to program. The silver silver box is eliminated

Haha! Look everyone, a smart guy! Everybody tell him how smart he is! Lol!

The silver silver box shouldn’t be included at all. And since you’ve already picked a gold ball, and only one box has two gold balls in it, the gold silver box should be considered as only having a silver ball in it. This question is about the boxes, not the balls

50% I think. Since you pull from the same box as 1st pick, and its guaranteed that you picked a gold one in 1st pick, the third box is eliminated. Thus, we are picking from either box 1 or 2.

If its box one, we pull gold.

If its box two, we pull silver (success).

Since we are pulling from either boxes then its a 50/50

You don't know exactly what happened in the first draw.

The probability that you drew from the first box is 2/3.

The probability that you drew from the second box is 1/3.

This is why the probability that the next ball is gold is 2/3.

THERE IS NO PROBABILITY

YOU PICKED A GOLDEN BALL AT 100%

the probability is after this pick

You only know a part of what happened in the first draw. You know that it was a gold ball but you don't know from which box it was.

That's why you calculate the probability of the two possible things that might have happened.

YES

BUT A GOLD BALL EXIST ONLY IN THE FIRST AND SECOND BOX

THE THIRD DISAPPIER FROM MY INTEREST

SO 2 POSSIBILITY

THE GOLDEN BALL WAS IN THE FIRST OR IN THE SECOND

SO THE SECOND PIC IN THE SAME BOX WILL BE GOLD OR SILVER.50%

retard

retard

RETARD

first case

is 100% SINCE ONLY 1 BOX AHVE GOLDEN BALL

second case is 100%

SINCE BOTH CASES YOU TAKE THE GOLDEN BALL

thrid cases is 50% because 1 of the golden ball boxes have a sinlver ball

The second case is 50/50 whether you picked from the first box or second box.

PICK A GOLDEN BALL

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY YOU WILL PICK ANOTHER GOLDEN FROM PICKING IN THE SAME BOXES?

BOTH BOX 1 AND BOX 2 HAVE 2 GOLDEN BALL

SO AT 100% I WILL PICK A GOLDEN BALL.

IN NO WAY I CAN PICK A SILVER ONE

The question is really about the probability of which box you just picked from.

AND THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING A GOLDEN BALL FROM A BOX WITH 2 GOLDEN BALL IS 100%

i know is the first and the second

at 100% enot the 3rd

>AND THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING A GOLDEN BALL FROM A BOX WITH 2 GOLDEN BALL IS 100%

Clearly you don't understand that this is looking at the problem in a different way than the original question, so I reworded it for your pedantic ass

HOLY SHIT

THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING A GOLDEN BALL FROM 2 BOXES FULL OF ONLY GOLDEN BALL IS 50%

YOU ARE INSANE

You have already picked a golden ball. I am talking about the probability of which box you just pulled that ball from.

SO THE NEXT ONE WILL BE A GOLDEN ONE FOR SURE SINCE BOTH BOXES HAVE 2 GOLDEN BALLS

nope

that problem consider the probability of the first pick

>SO THE NEXT ONE WILL BE A GOLDEN ONE FOR SURE SINCE BOTH BOXES HAVE 2 GOLDEN BALLS

Clearly you just don't have the capability to look at the problem in any other way.

>clearly you can understand math is a social construct and that i am a woman with a dick

THE DEFINITION OF A PROBLEM IS CLEAR

WHAT IS THE % OF PICKING A GOLDEN BALL

>RETARD

People falling for obvious trolls is funny.

nah youre the fucking retard

the odds are 50/50

anything more complicated then that is you trying to convince yourself that youre smart and we all know shitalians arent smart

>No argument

HOW I CAN BE 50% AND 50%

IF I CAN ONLY PICKING GOLDEN BALLS?

HOW?

HOW I CAN PICK A SILVER ONE?

left box and right box cancel each other out

leaving you with just the middle one, you fucking over grown shit stain

HOW I CAN PICK A SILVER BALL?

HOW I CAN PICK A SILVER BALL FROM 2 BOXES WITH JUST GOLDEN BALLS?

NO SENSE

got damn, no wonder your country hasnt innovated in technology since never, too busy stuffing your face with ragu sauce

no wonder your country created trannies.

when you call this shit logic

its simple logic if youre smart

if you know know the answer simply by looking at the picture then your iq is that of a retard

YEAP

being smart mean calling a golden ball silver?

tranny logic

lol

He's having a meltdown

>no argument

to reddit now

> three balls

ONLY 2

THE 3RD BOX IS ELIMIANTED SINCE LACK OF GOLDEN BOX

This. The 3rd box is obviously elimianted because it doesn't have a golden box.

O.K., I see. You're a fucking IQ 68 retard.

truly a fucking retard

this answare separe naggers to whites

THIS IS OT MONTHY PHYTON RETARD

You are picking out BALLS, not BOXES, you fucking inbred nagger.

THE BOXES IS WHERE THE BALLS ARE

THE BOXES EXIST

YOU CAN0T DELETE THEM

THE PROBLEM TELL TO YOU

PICK FROM THE SAME BOX

IN THE SAME BOX OF 2 SILVER BALLS CAN'T EXIST A GOLDEN ONE

You can't even speak English. This is fucking priceless. Can you produce a coherent sentence in Italian? We can try and translate it with Google Translate then.

>get btfo

>blab english

shit language for retards like you

you will never understand math

You understand no math nor English. Double retarded Italian nagger. You are the naggers of Europe. Just slightly fairer than the naggers of Malta, but you're pretty close there.

tranny the post

And the probability that the ball you just picked came from box 1 or 2 is influenced by the frequency of gold balls in those boxes.

Here, for anyone arguing for 50/50, simply point out where my code is wrong. It shows approximately 33.33%.

FIRST CASE

GOLDEN BALL FROM BOX 1

SECOND CASE

GOLDEN BALL FROM BOX 2

GOLDEN BALL 1,2 AND 3 DO NOT EXIST

IS JUST IN YOUR FUCKING BRAIN.

Oh okay, now simply express that in code.

set 1:{G,G}

set 2{G,S}

set 3{S,S}

if G = True then is not in set 3

Wow, so smart. It should be easy for you you write Python, right?

>phyton

learn C idiot

objects programming is for paeets and trannies

Oh, my bad, I thought I was picking a good prototyping and math language but I guess I was wrong. My bad. I rewrote in C, which was the first language I ever learned, just for you. You're able to fix it now, right?

WHY 3?

box 3 do not exist since will never be included in the calculation

there is 0% any balls you take is from box 3

>box 3 do not exist

Fine, box 3 does not exist

2 boxes

G G

G S

You pick a random ball out of those and it is gold. You either chose

1) Box 1 Ball 1

2) Box 1 Ball 2

3) Box 2 Ball 1

What are the odds the other ball in that same box is gold?

1) 100%

2) 100%

3) 0%

1/3 + 1/3 + 0/3 = 2/3rds

BOX 1 BALL 1

BOX 1 BALL 2

ARE THE SAME FUCKING CASES

BALL EXTRACT FROM BOX 1

BALL EXTRACT FROM BOX 2

THESE ARE THE ONLY 2 CASES OF THE FIRST PICKING

THE GOLDEN BALL 1 OR 2 DO NOT CHAGE THE CASE

YOU ARE CREATING YOUR OWN LOGIC ACCORDING WITH BALLS

>BOX 1 BALL 1

>BOX 1 BALL 2

>ARE THE SAME FUCKING CASES

And there we have the problem here and why you fucktards can't figure it out

You don't understand English.

FUCKING LOL

bitches about english?

YOU PICK A GOLDEN BALL

WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE IF IS 1 OR 2?

THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE BOX YOU TAKE IT

TARD

There are 3 gold balls, when you draw the first ball imagine that there is an equal chance of that ball being any of the 3 gold balls. Work out the odds from there.

THERE ARE 2 BOXES WITH GOLD BALL

WHICH OF THE 2 YOU PICK FROM THE FIRST BO IS IRRELEVANT

IS THE SAME OBJECT A GOLD BALL

Imagine the first box has an infinity of gold balls and the second box has a near infinity of gray balls (except 1 gold ball).

Explain how the situation is not a 50/50 anyway if the first pick being gold is a precondition.

Add the third box.

Imagine the first box has an infinity of gold balls, the second box has a near infinity of gray balls (except 1 gold ball) and the third box has infinity gray balls.

When you draw the gold ball, will you think it was equally likely that you picked box 1 and 2?

There could be an infinity of golden balls inside the first one and a near infinity of the gray balls inside the second and it still wouldnt change the probability.

Get it?

You pick the SET(box) of events. Once the box is chosen and the precondition (the pick of gold) is met you need to keep drawing from it.

The precondition makes it a 50/50. Even if it's one in a million to meet it.

Don't get so upset with retards lmao.

can't belive they are serious

>There could be an infinity of golden balls inside the first one and a near infinity of the gray balls inside the second and it still wouldnt change the probability.

This is your brain on retardation

retard confirmed.

You pick between the boxes einstein.

You dont pick one of the infinite balls.

YOU PICK ONE OF 3 BOXES

Once you pick a box you are forced to keep drawing from it.

>You dont pick one of the infinite balls.

It literally says you pick a ball out of that box

You are an embarrassment to your family and your friends talk about you behind your back

Add a hundred gold balls to the first box. That will ensure you always pick the first box of three according to your retarded logic.

I guess the universe will guide your hand towards it fucking kek.

Absurd. Wanna game that out? The moment we actually start filling boxes with marbles, or just rolling dice and flipping coins to simulate this scenario you claim falls apart.

Yes but that’s a different situation, because real life doesn’t have the set initial conditions that a hypothetical problem can have.

Maybe they don't teach americans to think?

Maybe they don't teach them that new data UPDATES the problem, in this case, into a new problem.

I pity them.

THIS is why boeing is bankrupt, being only able to make planes that crash into the ground in 2023, and Airbus are eating their lunch.

THIS simple logic problem explains a lot about laughable inflexible americans in 2023.

>starts by picking from box 2

>can only pick from same box

>doesn't know he has box 2

>"Hmmmm today I will say I have 2/3rds odds because the other box can provide me two golds"

>pulls silver like a nagger

>ignores the actual facts

>response with nonsense

You're worse than a flat earther and your parents are ashamed of you

What part of

>Can only pick from the same box

Do you not get?

Detach yourself immediately from the concept that you have any choice apart from your selected box.

You've already narrowed down that only two boxes have golds. Two options - remember that.

You now have to deduce what your odds are. If you pull the gold from the box, you can either pull a gold from the 1 box, or a silver from the 2 box. By this deduction, it is 50%.

Trying to add the odds from other boxes when their total sums have zero relevance is why you end up with 2/3rds.

It's 50%. Eat shit, brainlet.

They won't listen. They're your 'fellow americans', namely low-IQs who think of themselves as real humans.

You are a pearl among turds in your usa. Consider moving to a real nation with a future?

>Consider moving to a real nation with a future?

I appreciate the suggestion, but I'm fine where I live. If I lived with these literal apes, I would have moved already.

Also there's the prospect of nuclear armageddon on the horizon, so I'm just waiting to see whether it's all posturing or a potential reality, and I would rather be as far away from the theoretical danger zones.

So I WILL say that with that in mind, I'm quite happy where I am.

Fare ye well, fren.

Good luck to you, brother

>You now have to deduce what your odds are. If you pull the gold from the box, you can either pull a gold from the 1 box, or a silver from the 2 box.

Yes

>By this deduction, it is 50%.

No.

>Trying to add the odds from other boxes when their total sums have zero relevance is why you end up with 2/3rds.

All of the boxes are relevant because you don't know what happened in the first draw so the probability from the first draw is what decides the probability that you have the box with 2 gold in front of you.

This looks correct. So is the answer 1/3?

Well 33% is the answer to the question his code is asking, which is the odds of getting a silver ball.

The answer to the question in OP is probability of a gold ball, which is 66%

BOX 1 AND BOX 2

the answare is 50% and 50%

box 3 is irrelecant

1 AND 2 AS FIRST PICK

IS EQUAL

A GOLD BALL FROM BOX1

YOU ARE INFLATUATION THE RESULT

So 2/3. Interesting

IS 50%

TAKE WHICHEVER BALL FROM BOX 1 DO NOT CHANGE THE PREMISE

YOU TAKE A GOLD BALL

IS IRRELEVAN WHICH BALL IS BUT IN WHICH BOX IT IS

Check the OP again.

>Check the OP again.

Oops, my bad anon

I've seen the same image asking about gold.

But we agree though, and the 50/50 people are just trolling retards.

Cheers.

No worries

2/3 are breakfast naggers

box 3 is irrelevant

ball 1 and 2 are the same cases

you don't make a choice in the second step, there is only 1 random choice and only 1 possible way to assign that random choice a probability and it is 1/3

THE PROBLEM TELL ME I PICKED A GOLDEN BALL THIS GOLDEN BALL SELECT THE BOX I AM FORCED TO USE.

WHICHEVER GOLDEN BALL I TAKE FROM THE FIRST BOX IS IRRELEVANT

IN THE SECOND STEP I AM FORCED TO TAKE THE SECOND GOLDEN BALL

IS JUST 1 CASES

BALL FROM BOX 1

THIS IS A BOX PROBLEM

you're right, but I still feel there's something missing

>random.shuffle(random box)

YOUR CODE IS WRONG

YOU ARE PICKING FROM SAME BOX NOT A RANDOM BOX

He's doing that between every simulation, not between the two draws

YOU ARE NOT PICKING FROM A RANDOM BOX

YOU ARE PICKING FROM SAME BOX YOU PICKED A GOLD BALL FROM

Read the code again. He's picking from the same box.

He's just repeating this multiple times and the shuffling is between every experiment, not between the two draws.

You have to start with picking a gold ball and then picking again from same box.

Yes I am.

>random_box = random.choice(boxes).copy()

This is where the random box is determined. This random box is never redefined for each case.

You start with picking a golden ball.

YOU HAVE THIS BALL FROM THE BOX YOU PICKED FROM.

NOW WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THE NEXT BALL FROM THE SAME BOX BEING GOLDEN.

THE BOX ISN'T RANDOM

YOU ALRADY HAVE THE BOX THAT YOU PICKED THE FRIST GOLDEN BALL FROM.

YOU ONLY HAVE ONE BOX CHOICE AND THAT IS THE BOX YOU PICKED THE GOLD BALL FROM

That's how the question works. It's predicated on the fact that the first ball you pick is gold:

>It's a gold ball.

You must then pick the next ball from the same box.

I will ask once again: if you think this should work somewhat differently, show it in code. Hell, I will accept pseudocode.

Because the first pick isn't included.

You already picked the golden ball.

Its established you have a gold ball in your hand.

So, from there, what are the chances of picking another gold ball.

You are either going to pick a gold ball or silver.

You don't know exactly what happened in the first pick. You only know a part of what happened, but there are two different things that can have happened and they're not equally likely. That's why the probability from the first pick is relevant.

The baseline is that you have a gold ball, you already picked a gold ball.

You start from having a gold ball in your hand, then picking from the same box.

Hopefully this helps.

how did you get a 4th box?

You picked a gold ball. The first box has two gold balls.

How do you know which of the two gold balls you picked? They are two separate balls.

You have to consider both outcomes. The one where you picked the gold ball on the left and the one where you picked the gold ball on the right.

The box doesn't matter, what matters is how many balls are left over. Which is one ball, that could be either gold or silver.

>The baseline is that you have a gold ball, you already picked a gold ball.

This doesn't mean that you know exactly what happened in the first draw.

The outcome of the next draw depends on how you got point where you have the gold ball in your hand.

You don't know which box you picked so the probability of the next ball being gold depends on whether it was the first or the second box you picked.

Because you have a gold ball, the probability that it was the first box you picked is 2/3.

The box doesn't matter.

You already established a box, when you picked the golden ball.

You already picked a box but you don't know which box you picked.

You do know however that the probability that it was the first box you picked is 2/3 and the probability that it was the second box you picked is 1/3.

If you picked the first box, the next ball will be gold so the probability of the next ball being gold is 2/3.

It's already been established that you picked a gold ball, from a box with two balls.

Now the question starts.

What are the chances that you pick a gold ball from that SAME box.

You only have 1 ball left in the box.

Now if you have the gold ball from the g/g box, the other one is gold.

Now if you have the gold ball from the g/s box, its silver.

There are only two out comes. You don't include the first ball you picked. We already know it's a gold ball.

One is gold, one is silver.

The disconnect is calculating the probability that the gold you chose was from the double gold. There are higher chances that that was the case.

Something like a reverse monty hall. Where it's more likely you're already on the prize box due to your having had a higher chance of being on it in the first place from what you were shown. (note that you selected the first gold at random and it wasn't just given)

You people really need to be more specific because it's really hard to pin down what you think my code is doing wrong and what the original question says, since your understanding of both is poor.

>Because the first pick isn't included.

I'm assuming that you mean the question is saying that the first pick isn't included, because it is certainly included in my code.

The question states:

>You pick a box at random

>You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random

>It's a gold ball

>What is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will be silver?

Nowhere in there does it say to discount your first pick. In fact, your first pick is integral to determining which box you just picked from, which is the major unknown, and given the fact that it says that you pick the next ball from the same box I would think it says the opposite.

What you would be looking for is a question something like this:

>What is the probability that you could pick another gold ball from a box that you can pick a gold ball from?

In contrast, the question lays out a series of steps which I follow very carefully in my code, including only counting cases where I picked a gold ball first.

You do not include the first pick because it is already established that you already have the gold ball.

here

simple as

You have addressed precisely none of my points, you have also produced no code. Congratulations

again, the first pick should not be included in the question because the question is asked after you already have a gold ball in hand. then you pick from the same box. ALREADY having a gold ball, form that box.

And again, the question very clearly lays out the steps you take to pick your box and that gold ball ball and at no point in the question do you disregard what just happened.

You are looking for this question:

>For every box which contains a gold ball, what are the chances that you could pick another gold ball out?

This would discount the first pick. Why even describe the process of making the first pick in the question?

Wrong, the box doesn't matter. You start with a golden ball.

The start of the question is AFTER you already picked a box and a golden ball from it.

The question is predicated on everything that came before it. This is evidenced by the wording of the question.

>the next ball

Implying that we have just picked one ball out. This process of picking the ball was just described in detail, which is also modeled in my code exactly as written.

>the same box

Implying we are picking from the same box we just picked from, again which was described in detail.

What you want is to disregard the pick we just made, which is to ignore the wording of both the entire problem and the question itself, as well as just common sense and math question standards.

Instead of picking "the same box", you want to average the chance of pulling a ball out of all boxes with at least one gold ball.

I don’t code, but according to the construction of the problem:

G-G box: 50% chance to be chosen

G-S box: 50% chance to be chosen

S-S box: 0% chance to be chosen

G-G: 100% to draw gold first

G-S: 100% to draw gold first

This is why codefags are failing this test.

No interpretation of that statement makes sense.

I pick a random box every instance of the experiment:

>random_box = random.choice(boxes).copy()

If you mean that I'm taking the second ball out of the same box, yes, that's part of the question:

>What is the probability that the next ball you take from the SAME BOX will be silver?

THE BASE LINE IS THAT YOU PICK A GOLD BALL

YOU HAVE TO START AT PICKING A GOLD BALL

AND THEN PICK FORM THE SAME BOX

The first pick parameter is unnecessary

You're shuffling on a while loop. Shuffling Each time. The pick has already happened. You have two boxes to choose from as the third has been eliminated. The choice is down to 1 of two boxes not 3/4 balls. You have already chosen one of the boxes and are picking from it again. It either has 1 silver or one gold in it. It does not have 2 golds and a silver.

Now show how it should work in code.

Here ya go.

For simplicity: You never draw ball from the all silver box, that's part of the question.

So you have two boxes in front of you. Those two boxes contain 4 balls. What are your chances of picking gold vs silver? Is it 50/50?

No it's 3:1

But you already picked 1 gold, so now it's 2:1 of picking another gold.

HOLY SHIT

2 balls exist in Box 1

2 balss exist in Box 2

after the first Pic

ONLY 1 SINGLE BALL EXIST IN THE BOX I CHOOSE

this ball can only be Gold or Silver

Dude, seriously explain me how picking one ball out of the pool of four balls leaves only two balls remaining?

if you pick a golden ball from a box that box can't be a box with 2 silver balls

TARD

it depends on if you see the two gold balls in the gold box as unique objects

if you dont it is 1/2 but if you do it becomes 1/3

it would be natural to assume they are unique since in the real world they would be. but by words they are not since we havent given them unique identities yet

1/3 is right, but saying 1/2 doesnt make you a retard

if you DONT know

>if you [don't] know know the answer simply by looking at the picture then your iq is that of a retard

You got it wrong, THOUGH

dont bother anon, these midwits are beyond saving

they will never understand how or why it is 50/50

they cant be helped, just pity them and move on

i can understand this retardism on the monty phyton problem.

but this time the answare is clear.

>SO 2 POSSIBILITY

Yes

>THE GOLDEN BALL WAS IN THE FIRST OR IN THE SECOND

Yes. And the probability that you drew from the first box is 2/3. The probability that you drew from the second box is 1/3.

NOPE

IF I PIC THE FIRST GOLDEN BALL OR THE SECOND FROM THE FIRST BOX THE SITUATION DO NOT CHANGE

IS THE SAME FUCKING CASES.

Here you can read it explained with another example next to it

There are three boxes with probability 1/3 each, how can you say the probability of drawing from box 1 is 2/3?

I think you're retarded.

The probabilities involved with the first draw are irrelevant to the question being asked, and therefore can’t factor in to the statistical probability. The question isn’t asking what the probability is assuming you start at the very beginning, it’s asking what the probability is (given this situation in which you’ve already drawn a gold ball). The premise is basically creating a new universe with no history, where time begins with a gold ball in your hand from either box 1 or box 2.

You only know a part of what happened in the first draw. You know that it was a gold ball but you don't know from which box it was.

That's why you calculate the probability of the two possible things that might have happened.

Look at the example in this image.

It's the same thing.

That post was only replying to you by accident, I meant to link the picture to the other poster I was talking to.

And yes, it's considering the probability of the first draw and that's the correct thing to do here too.

>that's the correct thing to do here too.

YOU TOOK A GOLDEN BALL ATT HE FIRST PICK

NO MATTER WHAT

YOU AHVE A GOLDEN BALL

THIS FORCE YOUR BOX TO BE THE FIRST OR THE SECOND

>THIS FORCE YOUR BOX TO BE THE FIRST OR THE SECOND

Yes exactly. And the probability that it was the first box is 2/3

SO IS 50%

THE FIRST PICK IS 1 GOLDEN BALL FROM THE FIRST OR 1 FROM THE SECOND BOX.

THE FIRST PICK DO NOT MAKE DIFFERENCE FROM THE BALLS IN THE FIRST BOX

>You only know a part of what happened in the first draw. You know that it was a gold ball but you don't know from which box it was.

Yes. But it is irrelevant. Since it doesn’t matter which of the two golden balls from box 1 you might have picked, and there being 2 golden balls in that box didn’t actually increase your chance of picking that actual box, the situation we’re actually concerned with is basically either you have a box in front of you with another gold ball in it, or a box with a silver ball in it. The question is about the boxes, not the balls.

It's not irrelevant what happened in the first draw. It's more likely that it was the first box you picked.

Here you can compare it to another example that's the same problem but with different numbers. It can help explain why you calculate the probabilities of two different things that might have happened in the first draw.

Would your answer be the same if there was 99 silver balls and 1 gold ball in the second box?

naturally nope

because is not a 100% sure pick

IF YOU AHVE THE SECOND BOX YOU HAVE A 100% SURE SILVER PICK

1000% SURE GOLDEN PIC WITH THE FIRST BOX.

YOU CAN'T COMMIT MISTAKE FROM THE SECOND PICKING

THE RESULT OF THE SECOND PICKING IS ALREDY DECIDED FROM THE FIRST PICK

Your nagger admixture is showing, shame what happened to your people.

You picked a golden ball, but you do not know which one. Thus you must look at how the gold ball was acquired in order to know how likely you are to get another. To make the point more clear, consider a similar but exaggerated version of the puzzle.

There are two very large boxes; one contains 999,999 gold balls, while the other contains 999,998 silver balls and one gold ball. You chose a box and random and pluck a ball from it. The ball is gold. How likely is it that the next ball you take from the same box is silver?

The answer is clearly not 50%, because it is highly unlikely that the first gold ball came from the silver box.

Lol it’s literally 50%. Ether you pulled from the gold box or you grabbed the only gold in the silver box so the probably is 1 of 2

>You don't know exactly what happened in the first draw.

It doesn’t say that. Maybe work on your reading comprehension then eat a bullet

Why wouldn’t it be 2/3? Anyone who says 50/50 is clinically retarded and should be euthanized

elections are fake, the result is fake, voting is the problem as by doing so, you are de facto legitimizing a end to end fake process

>I hecking love science redditor midwit answer is 2/3.

>People with actual brains and those who work purely by instinct it's 1/2.

Make your choice.

the answer is 50/50

since left and right cancel each other out, youre only left with the middle box

50/50 chance

>3 boxes

>you pull a GOLD ball

>asks "What are the chances you'll pull a SILVER ball from the SAME BOX?"

>you eliminated the 3rd box (silver/silver/) by pulling a gold ball

>2 boxes left, one has a silver ball in it, the other does not

>YOU HAVE A 50/50 CHANCE NOW OF PULLING THE SILVER BALL

/thread

yes, the more taxes someone pay the more voting power they should have too.

So fucking tired of these bullshit slide threads

nagger many retarded anons like myself often spend ALL DAY on /misc/ dealing with nagger and kike bullshit (and pajeet and spic and chink)

Nice to have something a little different to engage with even though it's retarded and you're a nagger

>inb4 there's other LULZ boards for this

Fuck you homosexual /misc/ is home, the other boards are way too slow and trooned to oblivion

"Smart people" are, in many instances, easier to propagandize.

no, you cant just hand the election to the democrats like that

naggers it's been solved why are you still arguing it?

The people who say 2/3s would say your pic's answer is 1/3

His pic's answer is 1/3. The fact that there's two possibilities doesn't mean that the two possibilities are equally likely.

Because that is the correct answer. You have 1/3 chance of pulling silver ball.

Since you don't know what box is before you, you can pick anything remaining.

which is GOLD GOLD SILVER

How in the fuck you make it 50/50

It’s because of the initial conditions of the problem, which state you picked a gold ball. The real actual probabilities of this choice (that would actually exist in the physical world if we were doing this) don’t matter because the initial conditions state you picked a gold ball. It’s essentially saying that even if you chose the box with 1 gold and 1 silver, you pick the gold ball from this box 100% of the time because that is what the initial conditions of the problem state. So you have to view this problem as if you have either box 1 or box 2 in front of you, with a gold ball from each of these boxes already removed, leading to a box with a gold ball in it and a box with a silver ball in it, which is why people are saying 50/50. This can’t work in real life because we have to concern ourselves with the first choice, but the hypothetical scenario the question describes has its initial conditions set in stone, so in this hypothetical thought experiment it doesn’t actually matter that choosing a gold ball means it’s more likely that you chose box 1 (which is true and I’m not debating that the probability would be 1/3rd in real life where we don’t have ironclad initial conditions altering things).

>it doesn’t actually matter that choosing a gold ball means it’s more likely that you chose box 1

Yes it does, because that means it's more likely that it's box 1 you have in front of you.

In real life yes, but the initial conditions of this problem mean that even if you choose box 2, you will pick the gold ball instead of the silver ball in the first pick 100% of the time, because the problem says you picked a gold ball. Obviously this doesn’t make sense in real life, but the initial conditions of the problem make it so in this thought experiment.

Theoretically: 50/50 (assuming we aren't using the 49/51 ratio from real life)

Practically greater than that, with many more females due to the fact that some men have genetic disorders which will produce only girls and will simply keep producing forever, to the upper limit of biology obviously.

It would remain unchanged, wouldn't it?

P(⅓).

>option 1: pull a gold ball from the gold/gold box

>option 2: pull a gold ball from the gold/silver box

>both options result in the removal of the gold ball, hence the two follow-up options are gold and silver

50%.

The IQ test result should be used as a multiplier - everyone can vote, but their vote is scaled by their IQ/100

if you say 1/2 your a wordcel

if you say 2/3 your a object rotator

P(pick 2nd gold | picked 1st gold) = P(pick 2nd gold | inside box 1) * P(inside box 1 | picked 1st gold) + P(pick 2nd gold | inside box 2) * P(inside box 2 | picked 1st gold)

P(inside box 1 | picked 1st gold) = 2/3

P(inside box 2 | picked 1st gold) = 1/3

Getting the first gold gives you better information about whether you're inside box 1 or 2 than 50/50. Conditional probability is never intuitive which is why israelites love using it to manipulate goyim. Statistics are just lying with numbers.

This is the answer.

IF YOU PICK GOLDEN BALL FROM THE FIRST BOX THE RESULT IS THE SAME

THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2 GOLDEN BOX OF THE SAME BOX

THE EVENT IS THE SAME.

We can test this empirically. For this test you will need a six sided die and a coin.

First, roll the die. A 1-2 represents the first box, a 3-4 the second, a 5-6 the third.

If you chose the third box, start over. The initial condition cannot be met.

If you chose the second box, flip a coin. On heads, you chose the gold ball, making this a valid attempt. The next ball will be silver, so record one silver result. On tails, you chose the silver ball. This is an invalid attempt, so start over.

If you chose the first box, flip a coin. On heads or tails you chose a gold ball, so this is a valid and are guaranteed to draw the other gold next, so record a gold result.

Do this until you have... 30 results marked. should be enough to make my point clear.

THE TEST PART FROM YOU HAVING A GOLDEN BALL

THE 3RD BOX IS ELIMIATED BEFORE STARTING.

I agree, go ahead and flip a coin to decide between box one or two instead. It makes no difference other than saving time on failed setups.

you didn0t read the part of the problem which is written

TAKE THE BALL FROM THE SAME BOX.

this problem is about boxes not balls.

I did read it. The first step of the setup is to chose a box, the second to choose a ball from the box. If the ball is not gold we start over, as the initial conditions were not met. Once the initial conditions are met we simply look at what other ball is still in the box, and record that as our second choice and thus the result of that iteration of the test.

Knowing the layouts of the boxes, knowing the color of the balls in each AND knowing your own first selection means the answer is NOT what stats and similar mathematical nonsense suggests.

Ital-fren has nailed it.

Lol, how can you guys be so retarded. It is equivalent to choosing 1 box with 2g and the probability of doing that is 1/3 because there is only 1 box that satisfies the conditions of the problem

this has nothing to do with conditional probabilities. the inevitable outcome of the experiment is choosing 1 box, there are 3 boxes, if you choose randomly then the probability that you end up with 2g is 1/3.

No one can argue with this logic. Screenshot this

Yeah.

So gold first pick from the first box satisfies 2/3rds odds. The final 1/3 would be the second box.

Midwits be derpin'

It's always going to be like this

THE FIRST PICK IS NOT IN THE %

YOU ALREADY PICK IT

>P(inside box 1 | picked 1st gold) = 2/3

This is incorrect. If you picked gold then the probability you are inside box 1 is 1/2

You have to take into account the probability of picking gold first when computing the conditional probability of being inside box 1 given picking gold first.

>P(box 1 | 1st gold) = P(1st gold | box 1) * P(box 1) / P(1st gold) by Bayes' Theorem

>P(1st gold | box 1) is 1 since there are only gold balls in box 1

>P(box 1) is 1/3 since boxes are picked randomly at the start

>P(1st gold) is 1/2 since boxes and balls are picked randomly at the start

if you pic ball 1 or 2 from the first box the result is equal

a Gold ball from box 1

The result is equal, but they are different events if you do a brute force tally of all possible outcomes.

>G1-G2

>G2-G1

>G3-S1

>S1-G3

>S2-S3

>S3-S2

The statement "the first ball is golden" gets rid of the last three outcomes, leaving you with

>G1-G2

>G2-G1

>G3-S1

Of the 3 remaining outcomes, 2 are gold and 1 is silver. 50%-ers either collapse the first two events into one or they ignore the randomness of the first ball and tally the events as simply

>G2

>S1

YOU ARE FORCING BALL 1 AND BALL2 PICKING TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CASES

IS JUST THE SAME

I PICK A BALL FROM BOX 1

WHICHEVER BALL IT IS IS IRRELEVANT

IF IN THE BOX THERE ARE 99 GOLDEN BALL THEN THE PROBABILITES TURN 99%?

CMON

YOU CREATED PAHNTOM CASES

Only one with a fucking working brain here.

this thread is part of somebody experimental psychology dissertation. how many retards do we need to sway the consensus

Only land owners get to vote or if that makes ppl seethe too much than only ppl not on gibs get to vote.

The question starts at " You picked a gold ball "

Anyone who says otherwise is a fucking troon.

Do you guys really think being good at spot the pattern puzzles makes you able to decide what should be prioritized in government?

IQ is a joke of a metric. What does pattern recognition have to do with logic?

THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

>THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

>THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

>THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

>THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

>THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

>THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

>THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

THE QUESTION STARTS WITH YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL

THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

>THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

THE BASELINE IS YOU PICKING A GOLD BALL EVERY TIME AT THE START

THE PROBLEM STARTS AFTER U PICK THE GOLDEN BALL YOU STUPID naggerS SO YOU'RE LEFT WITH 2 POSSIBILITIES 2 GOLD OR 1 GOLD 1 SILVER

>"It's isn't 50%" fags seethe in this thread

You have a 50% chance to pick a second gold ball from the same box since there are only two colors.

Likewise, there are two other boxes, one that only has two of the same color (silver in this case), and then a possibility that one of the boxes is a mix with one of each, or has the same (gold) color.

You only have a 25% chance to get another gold from a different box with the information you have in mind, but as one of those boxes (silver-only) has been nixed and you can only pull from the same box, the odds are only 50% and can ONLY be 50%.

>try to make another monty hall problem

>fails

its 1/2 here

>quantum mechanics

tranny mecahnisc

you will never be real math

You’re basically admitting that you can’t fathom all possible outcomes to the situation at hand.

You don’t know which gold ball you chose so the outcomes are:

You picked gold ball one and you next ball is gold ball two.

You picked gold ball two and your next outcome is gold ball one.

You picked gold ball three and your next outcome is silver ball one.

So how would you feel if you didn’t eat breakfast?

IF I PICK A GOLDEN BALL

THE ONLY 2 ANSWARE ARE BOX 1 AND BOX2

BOX 3 % ARE 0

IS IMPOSSIBLE HAVING BO 3 AN ANSWARE

0 IS NOT A %

ELIMINATE FROM THE COUNT

I never mentioned box three.

How would you feel if you didn’t have breakfast?

YOU EAT EGGS AT BREKFAST AT LUNCH

THERE IS 3 MEAL AT DAY

BREAKFAST , LUNCH AND DINER

UNDERSTAND?

If it had happened would you think it was funny?

>i don't understand i have 3 boxes

>yes but the 3rd one hasn't golden balls

>i already told you i ahve 3 boxes

I HAVE 3 BALLS. I have to blindly pick one.

GOLD GOLD SILVER

If I put them in box, SOMEHOW the silver is 50%. You morons.

3/5

2/3fags are bootlicking retards who can’t think for themselves. They are vaccinated for sure.

We are doing 600,000 trials.

200k times you pick box 1

>100k g1-g2

>100k g2-g1

200k times you pick box 2

>100k g3-s1

>100k s1-g3

200k times you pick box 3

>100k s2-s3

>100k s3-s2

2/3fags are removing removing the last half of trials because >tfw no gold. This leaves them with 200k g-g trials and 100k g-s trials. 2/3, ezpz.

But this is not the problem being presented. You are selecting a box and the box produces a gold first. This is stated in the problem. You could have a box with one gold and a million silver in it and you would still pick the gold ball without fail. In other words, according to the construction of the problem, no matter how many times you pick the g-s box, you WILL draw a gold ball out first. It does not matter if this is improbable in reality, it is HARDCODED into the problem. You WILL choose a gold ball first no matter what.

So 50chads remove the latter third of trials because >tfw no gold. But they KEEP ALL TRIALS IN WHICH BOX 2 WAS SELECTED. This is because the only selection meting made is of boxes, not balls. You choose a box and you get gold EVERY TIME.

This preselection changes how it works out. The reason 2/3fags get it wrong is because of how they are excluding the trials (by the ball, rather than by the box).

Knowing you got a gold ball allows you to exclude the S-S draws because it is impossible to draw a gold ball from a box with no gold ball. It is however possible to draw a gold ball from a G-S box. Because the problem HARD CODES drawing a gold ball, you will ALWAYS draw a gold ball first from the G-S box. It is literally how the problem is constructed.

(Cont)

fucking KINO

BTFO forever 2/3 trannies

So if it is the construction of the problem that leads to this confusion, how would we word it to make 2/3 the correct answer?

It’s a really subtle change, which is why so many people fuck this up:

>IF you choose a gold ball, what is the probability te next ball from the same box will also be gold.

That “if” is the game changer. At this point the 2/3fags are correctly handling how to solve this.

But it doesn’t say “if”, it is hardcoded you get a gold ball. So fucking midwits go google the answer to a different problem or write some shitty code to answer this “if” question then pretend it applies to the picture in the OP. It does not.

This is why 2/3fags can not defend their answer while 50chads can. 50chads are grappling with the problem as presented while 2/3fags are attempting (and failing) to find an authoritative answer to a different fucking problem.

They will prove they do not understand by arguing with me about how this “if” doesn’t change anything. They probably didn’t even finish reading this far.

The fact that it's given that you picked a gold ball doesn't tell you everything about what happened in the first draw. You know you got a gold ball but don't know which box you have chosen. Because you don't know what happened in the first draw, you look at the probabilities of what happened. Two different things can have happened, either you picked box 1 or you picked box 2, and the probability that you drew from the first box is 2/3.

The probability that you drew from the second box is 1/3.

>the fact that the first draw was gold doesn’t tell you anything about the first draw

Please kill yourself now.

>the fact that the first draw was gold doesn’t tell you EVERYTHING about the first draw

learn to read

How about you learn to read, homosexual? You aren’t drawing from a bag of four balls, it’s two boxes with two balls each. You have already selected a box. There is a 50% chance you picked the right box. Learning your box has one gold ball in it changes nothing.

You have selected a box but you don't know which box you have selected.

When you draw the gold ball, you find out that the probability that it was the first box that you selected is 2/3.

Wrong. You clearly did not read my post, just like my post said you wouldn’t.

I did read it, you didn't read

though.

"it is hardcoded you get a gold ball." doesn't mean that you know exactly what happened in the first draw. You know that the ball was gold, but there are still two different possibilities for what happened in the first draw.

Okay, we’re going to use the exact same wording of the problem but now box 1 has 1000 gold and box 2 has 1 gold and 999 silver.

ACCORDING TO THE PROBLEM, what are your chances at drawing a gold first from box 2?

Hint: 100%

>ACCORDING TO THE PROBLEM, what are your chances at drawing a gold first from box 2?

>Hint: 100%

You don't need the if at the beginning of the question for it to be about conditional probability.

You draw a gold ball unconditionally. Every time you repeat this problem you draw a gold ball, the problem says you draw a gold ball.

If you somehow managed to pick box 3 a ghost will turn a silver ball gold because it’s fucking necessitated by the fucking problem.

He literally said “everything”.

How would you feel if you didn’t have breakfast?

>How would you feel if you didn’t have breakfast?

But I did have breakfast.

How the fuck am I supposed to answer that?

Imagine 2 boxes instead.

G/G

G/S

Because you never pick the silver box. How likely is that you pick any gold at all? From there you can use brain, why the answer is not 50/50

There is a 100% chance you pick gold first because that is literally what the problem says happens you fucking nagger

>what do you mean? I did eat breakfast.

Kill yourself.

fucking this

the meme is real

they are unable to create 2 different timeline in their head

after the first pick and before it

>You are selecting a box and the box produces a gold first. This is stated in the problem. You could have a box with one gold and a million silver in it and you would still pick the gold ball without fail. In other words, according to the construction of the problem, no matter how many times you pick the g-s box, you WILL draw a gold ball out first. It does not matter if this is improbable in reality, it is HARDCODED into the problem. You WILL choose a gold ball first no matter what.

This is simply not true. The problem implies that you grab a ball at random.

If the balls were stacked on top of each other like

G G S

G S S

and you always grabbed the top one, then yes this would be a valid answer and 50/50 would be correct. But it is not.

The problem says you pick a ball and it is gold. It is always gold. There are zero instances in which it is not gold. There could be 6 million silver balls in the box with one gold and you pick gold first every time no matter what.

You are retarded and proving my point.

This IQ test easily separates the low-IQs from the real humans.

>HINT FROM SOMEONE WHO DESIGNS ALGORITHMS THAT CAN LEARN

The answer you are going to proudly give before having a smug look on your stupid face is wrong.

And even using most math will give you the wrong answer too.

there's one box with both gold and silver balls, out of three. The chance that you picked that box is 1 out of 3, or 1/3rd, or 33.333333%. That's the probability, it's simple.

lel

WRONG

nope, you're misreading the question. There's a bunch of distracting nonsense in there. You pick one box out of 3 and pull both balls from it, what's the probability that you picked the box with both gold and silver balls, that's the question.

lel

Illiteracy is awful isn't it, little usa.

The answer is 50/50. You either pull out a gold ball or you don't.

The third box is bull. That isn't part of the valid odds.

Three possibilities. First and second are box 1. Third is box 2.

Not hard to grasp.

but then who would vote?

1/3 Silver Ball

2/3 Gold Ball.

Simple as.

HINT TO THE LOW-IQs...

The question asks for the answer AFTER you have picked a ball NOT before.

Learn to read and pay attention, usa.

Just having people present state id eliminates enough naggers from voting that it would never be an issue again.

its 50/50, anyway, whoever wrote the text its a retard, if the problem says

>you pick box at random, you take a random ball, its a gold ball

then it was never random in the first place because the problem is not a dynamic one like some website, it should have just said

>you pick a box, you take a gold ball

i know its just semantics but i can't stand it, maybe i'm autistic

what the fuck makes you west people be like this?

P(B|A)=P(AB)/P(A)=(1/3*1/2)/(1/3+1/3*1/2)=1/3

You start with having a golden ball.

Simple as.

HOLY SHIT NIPS TARD

IF YOU PICKED A GOLDEN BALL THE 3RD BOX IS ELIMINATED BEFORE THE START

Yes, because any ball pulled from the third box is an invalid start. Half of balls pulled from the second box are similarly invalid, and so are eliminated as well. Thus you have all pulls from the first box and half of pulls from the second box, and so must weigh the odds from the first box twice as heavily as from the second.

AT THE START YOU TAKE A GOLDEN BALL

YOU CAN'T TAKE ANY BALL FROM THE THIRD BO AT ANY MOMENT OF THE PROBLEM

YOU WILL NEVER TOUCH BALLS FROM THEC3RD BOX

lol, this is retarded. the probability of picking either box is 1/2

No see, you’re still using statistics for things that don’t matter because they don’t fit the initial conditions. The way the problem is worded, even though this doesn’t make sense in real life, is that you always choose the gold ball first if you pick box two. You don’t have to discard the 50% of times where you pull the silver ball first, because that simply will never happen given the stated initial conditions of the problem.

elections should require land ownership

is not the elaction a IQ-test.

if you say anything else than 50% you're autistic

nope 50% is the austist answare

naggers can't eliminate the 3rd box because they see it with their eyes so must exist

This is a word problem in English. If you read my post you would see you aren’t failing a math test, you are failing a literacy test.

This is why native English speakers are most likely to get the correct answer, 50%

Yes, it’s a reading comprehension issue. One in two people in America can’t read above 6th grade and it’s a college level question. They don’t understand that they’ve been given a set of things that have already occurred and then asked to plot out all the possible outcomes. Plus most of the curriculum is nagger worship, dildo practice, and penis inspection.

to whoever is saying 1/3 or something like if the problem says

>You take out a gold ball, what is the probability that the NEXT ball you take form the SAME box will be silver?

Then it means that one box is out by default from the fact that you take out a gold ball, the problem really its just on the first two boxes the third all silver one its just a distraction to make it seem more difficult

hopefully this helps all the brain addled 2/3rders out there understand why the original problem is 50/50

Hopefully this helps you understand.

What are the chances of picking a golden ball here.

>If I just completely change the problem then I can get the answer I want!

Always a fucking leaf

Not very well conveyed but this image is making the correct point.

Changing “irrelevant” to “100%” makes it better.

Also you seem to just have ignored some boxes you drew for no reason.

These two sets of outcomes are identical, why did you duplicate them?

>These two sets of outcomes are identical, why did you duplicate them?

Imagine you have a box with 1,000,000 gold balls and 1 silver ball

You're saying there's 50/50 because the only two outcomes are gold and silver?

Each gold ball is a distinct choice.

>you’re saying 50/50

I see you have poor reading comprehension skills.

How would you feel if you didn’t eat breakfast?

>ignoring the question and misdirecting to something else

Fuck off you retard.

Nobody will mourn your death

You predicated your question on your instance that I said something that I did and have not. Therefor the premise of your question is invalid.

How would you feel if you didn’t have breakfast?

>hurrr durr

pic related, it's you

I’ve been trolled.

This is flawed logic, which becomes obvious if exaggerated. Instead of two ball boxes, use million ball boxes. One has all gold balls, the other has one gold and the rest silver. You blindly pick a box and then a ball. It is gold. How likely is it that the next ball from the same box is gold? Your system would claim 50/50, but I would claim it is all but certain; the only way the next ball is not silver is on that one in a million chance that I picked the box full of silvers and plucked out the singular gold within it.

The only way that the next ball is silver*

Pretend you follow the problem presented but always pick box two. You are going to draw 1000 “first draws” from box two. How many are gold according to the problem as presented?

Hint: 1000, because it’s hardcoded into the fucking problem that you draw a gold ball. You can stuff infinite silver balls in the box and you still have a 100% chance of drawing gold first because that’s what the problem says happens.

Sure, because you have discarded those 99.9999% of cases where silvers were drawn. Once we reintroduce the first box, then out of two million picks and draws we would see (on average) a million golds from box 1, a single gold from box 2, and those 999,999 silver draws which are discarded as not meeting the scenario.

No, there are zero cases in which silver is drawn because the problem fucking states it is gold. If you run the problem over and over again it is gold every time if it is not gold, you did not follow directs and are not answering the correct problem.

Yes, but the conditions of the problem don’t have to make sense in reality. The problem doesn’t state ‘IF’ you choose a gold ball, what will the chances be. It states you pick a box and you ‘DO’ take a gold ball out of it. Therefore in the meta space this problem exists in, you will always 100% of the time pick the gold ball first from the box of a million silvers, even though this makes no sense in real life.

Even if you pick a different problem, there is only 1 random choice being made and that 1 random choice always has 1/n probability of success for any n.

>there is only 1 random choice being made

You pick a box

You pick a random ball out of that box

HURR DURR ONLY ONE CHOICE

then in that case you'd have to multiply the probabilities which would mean you'd get 1/3 * 1/2 which is 1/6.

Until the ball has been removed from the box, it is 100% gold and 100% silver.

Probability is mathematical pilpul. The chances of selecting a gold ball have already been 100% determined by God.

What most americans, who have not been taught to think, tend to overlook is;

>new data UPDATES the problem

Why is it so hard for low-IQ americans to comprehend this simple fact?

I've never been a believer in democratic politics.

Has no one here ever heard of what conditional probabilities and Bayesian formulas are?

No these questions always use cunty/israeli trickery in them and are only solvable if you're autistic or terminally on reddit

hiroshimoot should force tripcodes on anyone that unironically replies to these threads

The probability of that happening are the same as the probability of the usa being able to pay its debts in 2023.

if you draw a gold ball, the chances are 2/3 that it was the first box. if you then just draw from the same box again, 2/3 chance it is another gold ball, 1/3 it's the silver ball of box 2.

arriving at a 50/50 chance would require to eliminate box 3, eliminate 1 gold ball from the remaining box with 2 balls and then drawing again.

You picked a box at random and pulled a gold ball. So it can't be the box with 2 silver. It's either the box with 2 gold or 1 gold 1 silver. Making your odds 50/50. Retard

Change the word "gold" for 1, 2 and 3. and silver for 4, 5 and 6. Your first ball is 1, 2 OR 3 (gold), w hat are the chances your next ball from the same box is also 1, 2 OR 3 (gold)?

If you picked 1, the next one is 2 (gold)

If you picked 2, the next one is 1 (gold)

If you picked 3, the next one is 4 (silver)

Gold 2/3, Silver 1/3

I fucking hate you dumb amerimutts, no wonder China is beating the shit out of your country

Thank you for explaining this for retards

holy tard

" for 1, 2 and 3

1 AND 2 ARE THE SAME RESULT

You picked different balls. They both gold, but you picked different balls. The amount of balls isn’t conveniently interchangeable based on color.

I PICKED A GOLDEN BALL FROM BOX 1

THE PROBLEMS SAID OT ME I CATCED A GOLDEN BALL

THE DIFFERENCE IS IN WHICH BOX I TAKE IT.

But he explains the WRONG problem... not the one asked in the image.

Learn to read... both of you?

No he doesn’t you limey fuck, OP’s problem says what is the probability that the second ball is silver. You learn to read, you slack jawed mongoloid

kek

You mean the question is asked AFTER the gold ball has been chosen?

Thanks for agreeing with me, low-IQ.

You already picked a gold ball though retard. That makes the third box irrelevant. You can't pick a gold ball from a box with two silver balls.

I never said anything about a third box

and again, read the post again

>Change the word "gold" for 1, 2 and 3

WHY IF I PIC BALL 1 FROM BOX 1 AND BALL 2 FROM BOX 2 ARE 2 DIFFERENCE CASES?

IS THE SAME

A GOLDEN BALL FROM BOX 1

If only boeing and disney and signature bank and svb had people this smart they wouldn't be going down the shitter after each other.

FIED YOUR SHIT

Change the word "gold" BOX 1 AND BOX 2 3 IS IRREVEVANT

If you picked 1, the next one is gold

If you picked 2, the next one is silver

50%

KILL ALL naggerS

Are you forgetting that one of the gold balls has already been removed and you are picking from the SAME BOX?

this means you are either picking from box one or box two. If you remove 1 gold from each you have one gold or one silver left. You big dumb idiot.

Forget about the fucking gold color

If you only use the numbers, these are the possible combinations provided each time you picked the ball you got a different number for the sake of calculating the probability

First pick ball 1 > 2 you picked box 1

First pick ball 2 > 1 you picked box 1

First pick ball 3 > 4 you picked box 2

BALL 1 ,2 ,3 87 DO NOT EXIST

YOU ARE NUMERING THEM

BOX 1 BALLS

BOX 2 BALLS

THESE ARE THE CASES

Throw in a hundred gold balls to the first box retard. I guess it will make the probability of second pick being gold 99%.

Moron.

>Throw in a hundred gold balls to the first box retard. I guess it will make the probability of second pick being gold 99%.

Yes, now you get it

99% PROBABILITY BECAUSE I CAN CHOICE FIRST 99 DIFFERENT BALLS WHO DO NOT CHANGE THE RESULT?

IF I HAVE 99 IN THE FIRST BO OR JUST 1

THE SECOND PICKING WILL GAVE THE SAME RESULT

WHICH EVER BOX I CHOOSE

>so dumb people can't vote?

you got it all wrong, actually only dumb people vote in elections thinking they are going to make any difference

Understanding that americans, who consider themselves intelligent, ignore that new information UPDATES probabilities explains a lot about why the usa fails in almost everything it has ever done in its entire history.

Why are americans like this?

IQ is a meme, retard. Alot of "smart" or "high IQ" people have pretty idiotic political beliefs

only White landowner should be allowed to vote

boxes have zero meaning in this context, only the amout of balls are

its 60% that other ball is silver and 40% that its a gold one

People who say 2/3 (66%) think these two questions are asking the same thing:

>What is the probability of picking a box with at least one gold ball?

>What is the probability of picking a gold ball out of a box that already has a gold ball?

They cannot help it, fren.

They are NPCs who don't know they're NPCs.

People who say 50% think these two questions are asking the same thing:

>What is the average chance of picking out two gold balls from all boxes with at least one gold ball?

>What is the chance of selecting a box at random, selecting a random gold ball, then selecting another gold ball from the same box?

for the last time

take ball 1 from box 1 first

take ball 2 from box 1 first

THE CASE IS THE SAME

A BALL FROM BOX 1

Fuck off you don't get last post you spamming retard

fuck off tard

you can't argue back and cry like the tranny you re

THIS IS NOT A MONTY HALL

having more ball in a boxes do not change the result of picking boxes

box 1 1

box 1 2

is the same cases tard

>67 posts by this IP

Do you really want to be a contrarian in every math thread?

He's paid to do it

So the next time this comes up, just ignore the Italy flag posting in all-caps.

Good to know

Nope, diversity is our strength. Let the idiots vote.

It amuses me that the people who demand that the answer is 2/3 are answering a question they IMAGINE has been asked, rather than the question that HAS been asked.

This poor reading comprehension explains why they are failures in life and cannot understand why.

why don't you enlighten us about the question that you think was asked?

I already did.

Normally these threads have obvious trolls, but with this one I can't tell if some of you guys are just that dumb

It's the same 3-4 people each time.

The all-caps Italy homosexual is obvious as fuck and spams constantly

I just respond to push this to bump limit ASAP

Yeah, that pastanagger always trolls with caps lock so I just ignore his posts

retard who can0t understand

BOXES PROBLEM

NOT BALLS PROBLEMS

escape like you want homosexual

This thread is really sad.

Since you obviously did not pick from box 3, you either picked from box 1 or 2.

So 50%.

All that nonsense calculations are just wrong. People who come to the solution of 2/3 ommit that you must have dropped all the cases where you put your hand in box 3, otherwise you could not have come to the state where you hold a golden ball.

Try to use logic instead of statistics if you don't know how to do it correctly.

The number 3 doesn't come from the boxes you fucking retard

It comes from the fact there are 3 gold balls.

DO NOT EXIST

GOLDEN BALL FROM BOX 1 AND GOLDEN BALL FROM BOX 2

THESE 2 ARE THE CASES

IF I TAKE ANY BALL FROM BOX 1 HE RESULT IS THE SAME

BOX PROBLEM NOT BALL PROBLEM

I just tried to show retards like you to look at the problem from a different angle. But obviously you are the wrong kind of colour to understand.

How would you feel, if you did not have breakfast?

This meme is fascinating and amusing to me.

I LOVE reading the comments every time.

You get NPCs adamant that their rote math answer is correct because they imagine the question conforms to some probability problem in some textbook and they can appear 'smart', when in fact it is a trick question to weed out the unimaginative, the illiterate and the impractical from the workforce.

Americans amuse me.

2/3rds is the objectively correct answer