it was good when housing was able to price adjust
these days there's too much wealth for prices to come down when cash purchases dominate when rates are high. bring rates down and prices get artificially propped up again.
you can't recover from such a long zirp combined with 2020 when everyone that wanted to move moved all at once.
which affect renters, and the mortgage buyers have is so low it doesn't matter
so much investment is tied in home prices these days firms are going to keep scooping up properties only just to keep the prices high
the only question is will they care about commercial
>yield curve inverted >30 trillion in debt >post Covid recovery still incomplete >3 regional banks collapse >06 pattern and bow shock from the fed hiking shit from 1 to 5% in less than 2 years. >Biden draining oil reserves >China is about to implode >student loan payments in October
Anon, it’s already worse than dotcom it’s just waiting for the housing market to turn over because of delinquencies, which are infact rising. 1/3 young men aged 18-27 aren’t even working.
You have to be fucking high to believe this is going to be anything LESS than 08.
2 weeks ago
Anonymous
delinquencies isn't going to cause prices to come down when there's trillions looking for entries knowing how 2008 turned out.
2 weeks ago
Anonymous
They are mistaken about what QE will do to interest rates though. The debt is so high now, the leverage is so prevalent that we are inflating more as a % than ever before. QE will make the yields go up, that's not something people are grasping but even if the bond market goes up in the short term, the sheer amount of money that we need to solve our short term problems is going to make the long term yields shoot up.
The government is borrowing so much money and dumping those bonds on the market in such volume it's pushing the yields up on the front end of the curve like crazy.
The bond guys are being too complacent, they are too accustomed to QE pushing rates lower.
2 weeks ago
Anonymous
no government can do anything about the debt, no generation is going to decide they're going to be the ones to pay it, it's going to be pushed back forever until everyone uses a different money and all the old debt settles worthless.
2 weeks ago
Anonymous
>trillions looking for entries
Where are these trillions you speak of? People are draining their bank balances and racking up their credit cards just trying to stay afloat, not much left in the tank for most
2 weeks ago
Anonymous
pension funds, investment funds, foreigners happy to pay 50% over to keep their money out of pooh's hands.
housing isn't retail's market anymore, it's like expecting appl to go down because people can't pay off their credit cards.
2 weeks ago
Anonymous
You can gradually destroy a nation just by overpricing its housing, it's a very powerful tool for asymmetric warfare and globohomo has used it to great effect. Adam Smith warned everyone about rent-seeking centuries ago.
they were bespoke, at that size they almost always are. they aren't going to entertain some retail nobody trying to short any market. you either go through what a broker offers you or they expect you have at least 9 figrues to play with.
they were bespoke, at that size they almost always are. they aren't going to entertain some retail nobody trying to short any market. you either go through what a broker offers you or they expect you have at least 9 figrues to play with.
you could've shorted comm RE or retail b&ms like Macys/Nordstroms from 2021 to now and made a decent return.
Not a chance. High rates are starting to kill funding in start ups, and the tech industry which propped all this shit up was built on continual VC cash. Commercial property will continue to feel a lot of bleed.
my girlfriend is a realtor in Canada and about 2 minutes ago a chinese realtor reached out and said her buyers were very serious, willing to pay cash and had been searching for a long time to buy a house in this area of the GTA (greater toronto area).
Lmfao the Chinese are still in here buying this shit will never end lol.
The fact you guys actually just let non-citizens buy up property is fucking insane. It's one thing if they were helping cover the bill for a family member living in the country but just buying a house only to fucking sit on it while not even living there should be completely criminal.
I am closing on my first home right now, and the process is downright criminal. First off, everyone needs your money and a lot of it. $10,000 to close on a house is fucking retarded. Second, inspectors are the shadiest bunch since I met my first car dealer. You pay them $600 just for them to give you vague answers to your questions. That pillar looks rotten, will it be ok or need replaced? "I don't know, you need to contact a foundation expert".
If you have a good inspector they will find tons wrong with any house, including new builds.
If you have a shit inspector they will find a few things wrong, but tell you it's generally okay, and miss a few big issues.
I had to stop all my retirement contributions to afford my $3k mortgage payment on a $5k monthly take home pay. Try shorting my ally savings account instead.
it was good when housing was able to price adjust
these days there's too much wealth for prices to come down when cash purchases dominate when rates are high. bring rates down and prices get artificially propped up again.
you can't recover from such a long zirp combined with 2020 when everyone that wanted to move moved all at once.
I agree. The dollar is strong.
Higher for longer, layoffs are coming in 2 weeks, student loan payments resume in 3 weeks
which affect renters, and the mortgage buyers have is so low it doesn't matter
so much investment is tied in home prices these days firms are going to keep scooping up properties only just to keep the prices high
the only question is will they care about commercial
housing market to the moon.
probably won't rise significantly, or at all, but expecting anything like 2008 is naive.
We won't get the same level of crash, we're just working towards a smaller one as more and more are priced out.
>yield curve inverted
>30 trillion in debt
>post Covid recovery still incomplete
>3 regional banks collapse
>06 pattern and bow shock from the fed hiking shit from 1 to 5% in less than 2 years.
>Biden draining oil reserves
>China is about to implode
>student loan payments in October
Anon, it’s already worse than dotcom it’s just waiting for the housing market to turn over because of delinquencies, which are infact rising. 1/3 young men aged 18-27 aren’t even working.
You have to be fucking high to believe this is going to be anything LESS than 08.
delinquencies isn't going to cause prices to come down when there's trillions looking for entries knowing how 2008 turned out.
They are mistaken about what QE will do to interest rates though. The debt is so high now, the leverage is so prevalent that we are inflating more as a % than ever before. QE will make the yields go up, that's not something people are grasping but even if the bond market goes up in the short term, the sheer amount of money that we need to solve our short term problems is going to make the long term yields shoot up.
The government is borrowing so much money and dumping those bonds on the market in such volume it's pushing the yields up on the front end of the curve like crazy.
The bond guys are being too complacent, they are too accustomed to QE pushing rates lower.
no government can do anything about the debt, no generation is going to decide they're going to be the ones to pay it, it's going to be pushed back forever until everyone uses a different money and all the old debt settles worthless.
>trillions looking for entries
Where are these trillions you speak of? People are draining their bank balances and racking up their credit cards just trying to stay afloat, not much left in the tank for most
pension funds, investment funds, foreigners happy to pay 50% over to keep their money out of pooh's hands.
housing isn't retail's market anymore, it's like expecting appl to go down because people can't pay off their credit cards.
You can gradually destroy a nation just by overpricing its housing, it's a very powerful tool for asymmetric warfare and globohomo has used it to great effect. Adam Smith warned everyone about rent-seeking centuries ago.
do the products he had created still exist?
they were bespoke, at that size they almost always are. they aren't going to entertain some retail nobody trying to short any market. you either go through what a broker offers you or they expect you have at least 9 figrues to play with.
you could've shorted comm RE or retail b&ms like Macys/Nordstroms from 2021 to now and made a decent return.
whoops, i meant 2022. here is one example. maybe CRE will start pumping again as they push return to office, or at least hybrid work.
Not a chance. High rates are starting to kill funding in start ups, and the tech industry which propped all this shit up was built on continual VC cash. Commercial property will continue to feel a lot of bleed.
my girlfriend is a realtor in Canada and about 2 minutes ago a chinese realtor reached out and said her buyers were very serious, willing to pay cash and had been searching for a long time to buy a house in this area of the GTA (greater toronto area).
Lmfao the Chinese are still in here buying this shit will never end lol.
The fact you guys actually just let non-citizens buy up property is fucking insane. It's one thing if they were helping cover the bill for a family member living in the country but just buying a house only to fucking sit on it while not even living there should be completely criminal.
I am closing on my first home right now, and the process is downright criminal. First off, everyone needs your money and a lot of it. $10,000 to close on a house is fucking retarded. Second, inspectors are the shadiest bunch since I met my first car dealer. You pay them $600 just for them to give you vague answers to your questions. That pillar looks rotten, will it be ok or need replaced? "I don't know, you need to contact a foundation expert".
I just want this to be over with
If you have a good inspector they will find tons wrong with any house, including new builds.
If you have a shit inspector they will find a few things wrong, but tell you it's generally okay, and miss a few big issues.
My inspector pointed out a lot, but was not answering questions because he was afraid to get sued or some shit. Just a waste of $500 honestly.
I had to stop all my retirement contributions to afford my $3k mortgage payment on a $5k monthly take home pay. Try shorting my ally savings account instead.
yeah, nobody's going to screw up their golden goose of a mortgage before they stop saving and consuming nearly everything else.
the crunch will be in every other sector first