BTC might make a slightly higher ATH before going to new lows (1-3k).
I know all the FOMO moonboys are rolling their eyes right now but if you're someone who's not fucking retarded and doesn't want to get absolutely rekt beyond belief then consider what I'm about to explain. I am not a permabear, I'm just a realist, first I was open to 15k to being a bottom, then 7-9k, but now 1-3k seems more likely, because it seems so unlikely to the average person.
Understand this, you are ALL so fucking predictable, which is why the market makers take their money from you, it's so easy to just imagine every single narrative that will play out, it's as clear as day. Just think about it for a minute, the market makers want YOU--OUT, both bulls AND bears, you really think they're just going to let 50% of the fucking braindead mouthbreathing NEETs in the crypto space staring at their monitor all night in their moms basement to all become multi-millionares or billionaires just because they took a YOLO leveraged position at what they and millions of other people thought was the bottom? OBVIOUSLY NOT YOU RETARD. HALF A BILLION PEOPLE ARE INVESTED IN CRYPTO, AT LEAST HALF OF THOSE ARE BULLISH. All the bears who thought we'd top out at 32k were wrong, and all the bulls who think we're going straight to 250k after we touch 70k are also wrong.
I'm going to share with you 2 charts, first one's just some elliot wave counts, which I think is really obvious from the macro perspective. This is the monthly chart on the log scale, we've completed a 5 wave move up and are now in a 5 wave correction (bear market) to the downside. We are in the middle of wave C of an ABCDE correction in a descending broadening wedge.
(1/5)
Sure this is speculation, but the waves seem perfectly fucking proportional to me. If you continue the diagonal support line it eventually meets with a giant fair value gap that has never been touched at 1336-1799, which also happens to sit right on top of 2013s bullrun ATH. As you might have noticed, 2017s bullrun ATH has been an area of support during this correction. If you use the fib time tool from the wave B to wave C (ATH to 15k low) the no. 5 line also is right around that area. So that's 3 areas of confluence.
Look at this chart, I understand a lot of people try to cut and paste and flip bar patterns to fit their bias and they get it wrong, maybe it's not perfect but this seems like the most realistic scenario, let me explain to you the exact play by play. Everyone and their fucking mothers is looking at the exact same chart just looking at the last few years and just copy and pasting where we are now, expecting the same thing to happen again, for the fourth time in a row, they're almost half right, but IN REVERSE, on a MUCH LARGER SCALE. Like you people are so fucking shortsighted and emotional it's unbelieveable. Delusional moonboys love to say "bUt tHiS tiMe ItS DiFfErEnt RiGhT??", retard, THERE'S HALF A BILLION FUCKING PEOPLE IN CRYPTO, SO YEA ITS A LITTLE BIT FUCKING DIFFERENT. But I understand, maybe that sounds bullish to people who dont realise that there's a small group of people controlling the majority of BTC in circulation, and yes it's still bullish in the long term, but not before they try to shake enough people out and take enough money in the medium term.
This is the weekly chart, look at the highs and lows leading up to the last bullrun and the diagonal resistance where there was a fakeout to the upside before the flash crash before the actual breakout. Pay attention to where the waves extend and retrace to, there are 3 drives to a lower low that wicks down below the 0.236 right before the breakout.
(2/5)
Before ATHs there was a build up of relative equal highs (horizontal resistance) where everyone put their stop losses thinking that BTC was going to zero, because they believed all the FUD and got made by the market makers. I think this same scenario is playing out in reverse now, with diagonal support. The narratives and sentiments are also in reverse it's just so crazy how people really such fucking NPCs. Like they'll call anything realistic or negative about crypto FUD but they will lap up absolutely any and all FOMO news by paid actors. You are literally sheep willingly walking into a slaughterhouse and are completely smug about it too. I'll go through exactly what the narrative will be, wave by wave.
>Wave 1 (39k): The wave we're in right now, probably going to hit 39k before a retrace. The biggest fucking moonboys obviously believe we're at the start of a bull market right away. Still a lot of people on the fence.
It's so funny though, how the moonboys will talk about what narratives will drive us to higher prices as if they are not the very victims of the fomo news of a fake pump.
>Wave 2 (30k): We correct down to 28k-32k. Bears get excited and think they timed the exact top (they won't). Moonboys will point out we're at horizontal and diagonal support and that means there's noway we can go any lower. It's a flash sale.
>Wave 3 (45k): We make a higher high and fill the 42k-44k fair value gap. Moonboys super sure of themselves now. There's no turning back from this much hopium and delusion.
(3/5)
>Wave 4 (30k): We dump again and break below diagonal support, any remaining bears now FOMO into shorts thinking it's a breakout to the downside and are trapped for wave 5. This also will happen around the halving, so the narrative moonboys are pushing is that it's simply the market makers trying to shake everyone out before the bullrun keeps going. Moonboys go ALL IN as we approach and break diagonal resistance, because EVERYTHING has been confirmed, the stars are aligned, the BTC halving event, higher highs are consistently being made, they're completely in a dreamstate now and nothing will bring them back to reality from here out, until it's too late.
>Wave 5 (63-75k+?): The end of wave D, possibly break ATHs. Complete euphoria and greed. Bears become bullish. All the people on the sidelines are in. There's absolutely no way we're ever going back down, it can ONLY be a parabolic rise from here on out. Just look at the last 3 bullruns! Why would this time be any different? (because 3 bullruns equals 5 elliot waves you dumb fuck) 250k baby here I come I'm going to be so rich!!!
Though this would set up the 3rd relative equal high that later on, when we get closer to it again, this time retail traders will still be bearish at see this as unbreakable resistance, setting their stop losses above it, market makers will let stop losses accumulate there before price absolutely tears through it with such velocity at the next bull run.
(4/5 (probably 6))
>Wave 6 (30k): We crash 50%, breaking below diagonal support again and establish a third equal low, moonboys may feel a real fear for the first time denial and in full swing, they're completely high on hope and copium. Nothing will change their mind, they see the relative equal lows as impenetrable support, they start drawing red circles around the flash crash before the last bull run to convince themselves this is the same thing that's happening and it's the biggest sign of an imminent bull run. They go absolutely all in, convinced that this is the last "discount" they will ever see. It is after this point that they will truly begin to feel real despair, sooner or later.
>Wave 7: Feeble bounce. Moonboys are desperately looking for a break through diagonal resistance. At this point it's a really obvious head and shoulders pattern, but they're just going to ignore that because they're thinking "well last time we saw this pattern we broke to the upside!" in full and complete cope mode (it wasn't a HS at 30k they were basically equal highs)
>Wave 8 (26k): Extreme cope and damage control, moonboys can do nothing at this stage but cuddle each other and say everythings going to be okay and don't sell at the bottom DIAMOND HANDS DIAMOND HANDS GUYS!!
(5/5)
Now just think about it and I mean really think about it hard, you're watching your 5, 6 or 7 figure portfolio that you have been dollar loss averaging for YEARS just being absolutely decimated within weeks and every single day it just keeps going down.... and down....and down... your 6 figure investment cut in half and steadily dropping every hour...every day... it just will not stop going down, for an entire year, no matter how much you tell yourself it will go back up. You don't think you'd be that sucker that sells at the bottom right? But it's only a matter of time before the reality of it dropping close to 100% sets in, and every single day you have to battle with your conscious, would you rather take a 50%, 60% loss or 99% loss? Would you rather have something or nothing? On top of the fear you already have from your gains exponentially diminishing, there are more FUD news dropping, and this time, you are going to believe it. Most people will not hold to the real bottom, most people cannot endure that much pain and stress for that long, you will be all too aware every day that your assets are rapidly declining, it will be eating your soul and sooner or later, after a couple of weeks or months, you pull out and feel a sense of relief. Finally people are DONE with crypto, they don't want to fucking hear about it anymore, they give up, sick of it, that is when TRUE DESPAIR and disbelief has set in. And then, when people are 100% positive that bitcoin is dead in the water, when it starts going below 3k and everyone thinks Terra Luna is happening all over again and try to short it to 0 (emotional trading again, they are angry at BTC for going down when they were invested so now they WANT it to keep going down), that's when it explodes upwards. Then rinse and repeat last cycle, the average sucker buys past 100k, keeps holding at 800k thinking it'll hit 1 million, then sells off again.
>TRUE DESPAIR and disbelief has set in
true despair was at 15k after all major crypto companies collapsed in 2022.
That was absolutely not despair.
That's what's going to happen.
I thought it was going to below 3k anyway from looking at this chart
I just did the elliot wave count afterwards for you fucking homosexuals I don't use it to trade.
> That's what's going to happen
So then all assets will also moon in a hyper inflationary scenario. 1k-100k will be an illusion, $1k pre hyperinflation will have same buying power as $100k post hyper inflation. People won’t get rich off this, only not lose their purchasing power like people will hold cash
>People won’t get rich off this, only not lose their purchasing power like people will hold cash
Exactly, the people in crypto will be like the new upper middle class and everyone else will be in severe poverty or relying on the government.
Elliott Waves has been debunked my brainlet
>MUH LINES
TA naggers are beyond retarded.
Here's what drives Bitcoin price: supply and demand.
Supply is being cut in half in less than 6 months.
Demand is increasing as participation in the network rises, as the ETF drives institutional adoptions, as Bitcoin replaces gold as a financial asset etc.
I'm only selling when we get to a market cap of $12 Trillion, which is what the gold MC is.
This thread is garbage, you should be ashamed of yourself. Didn't even read what you wrote, just looked at the chart.
>Bitcoin will go back to 70k, then down to 1-3k, then up to 1 million, then back to 70k, then to 10+ million
Yeah you're chart is fucking retarded and you've lost it.
This was correct:
Did I say it would go back to 70k from 800k you fucking dumb coping retard?
Even taking away that error it still sounds absolutely fucking ridiculous
>it still sounds absolutely fucking ridiculous
Yes it does, that's the point. BTC going to 70k used to be absolutely fucking ridiculous.
That's the least ridiculous part in your post. Even going to $1 million eventually isn't ridiculous. It's the wild swings from 70k to 1k to $1 million.
Also
>A ridiculous thing happened in the past so now anything ridiculous is possible
This is your logic.
Let me clarify then you fucking dense cunt, I personally don't think it's ridiculous, but I can understand why people think it's ridiculous. Now fuck off.
>It's the wild swings from 70k to 1k to $1 million.
Also it's not that wild of a swing proportionally on a log scale, but it SOUNDS so wild to below average IQ sheep like you because ohh the number is so much bigger!!11
Your chart indicates as much in 2029 retard.
My fault
Ignore that that was a mistake I just threw in that wave count I dont fuckn know where it'd retrace to exactly who cares.
>1-3k
>uses elliot waves as a forecasting metric
>not as a confirmation
This blog post was written in a late night stimulant binge stupor with untested confidence
>(1-3k).
>why?
>elliot waves
checkmate atheists
So do I wait or continue dca'ing?
Sell at 70k, at least half, or at the very very least take out your initial investment
1k to 100k seems like the most retarded thing ever and I can only see something like this happening if we get a global collapse and them hyper inflation immediately after
FTX and SBF deliberately kept the price of Bitcoin down, it is in the court documents. When a customer bought Bitcoin off FTX it was faked, unless they decided to self store and remove it from the exchange. When you bought Bitcoin from FTX it was actually FTXbucks. When the FTX went under there was more sell pressure than actual bitcoins owned, creating a more than unusual dump. Your analysis of the charts are not factoring in that at all.
Bitcoin held throught major floors because of market manipulation, pic related. This is why ETF will keep getting rejected. Look at Blackrock's filling, they are so scared of this that they added numerous disclaimers about basically tethering fucking up investors.
>load ze tether fud!
ETFs will supercede tether in under a year, you should use your fud as much as possible before it's entirely irrelevant
already priced in
OP is a fucking retard homosexual spreading fake news!
>D-K: The Post
I'm not sure where the delulu of human market makers even existing in great number in crypto comes from, or that further they're conspiring to take your money, which isn't their function at all, comes from but it smells distinctly reddit. I don't want to get hung up on this, but you're mistaken about the purpose of market makers and how they actually generate profits. You move into this general idea of everyone wants your coins, but overestimate the power anyone actually has to move this market so substantially.
Very nice tradingview doodles, but clearly started with a conclusion that a retrace to the 17 high was inevitable and drawn to support that, inorganically.
Total ignorance of fundamental changes that place each cycle in a new economic epoch. Circulating supply, marginal supply, aspects of owners' positions, all are materially different in each one and irreversibly so with exception to positions.
Not thinking about what bitcoin even is, at the core, that there is an absolute minimum value at which miners break even that is influenced by the marginal supply declination. There is more to this than playing with price history statistics.
Don't be upset at what I've told you, I'm not shitting on you, but your analysis is highly flawed.
Oh wow! Thanks for letting us know instead of keeping the information to yourself and taking advantage of the situation.
Thank you!
Fucking nagger kek
Hey yeah. OP why did you post this instead of making money off of this yourself? Hey, that’s shady. Hey OP, please answer this, why post this? Hmmmmm??? Makes one think
The deal you get from sharing ideas here is that for the cost of leaking an opportunity you might have found, you get feedback on it that could improve the analysis. I've done it before on much juicier topics.
i aint reading allat, nigga
OP is a fucking retard homosexual spreading fake news!
>OP is a fucking retard homosexual spreading fake news!
OP is a fucking retard homosexual spreading fake news!
G A Y
Based op. Life savings will be lost and you wont own anything by 2030.
not reading beyond "new lows" (I can't even see the rest of your sentence, this reply box is covering it)
bitcoin goes up: cool. I'll think about selling when 1 BTC = private nation (army & harem included)
bitcoin goes down: I'll buy more.
thanks for playing
Somewhat legit.
Doomers correctly predicted 68 of the last 2 financial collapses.
Even if you’re right you just told me that holding for a few years will give me a 20x on my 3 btc so thanks
Hopefully. I buy $2k of BTC a month
I drew some lines on digital paper. No need to thank me.