>Bonds are the most liquid a-CK

Yesterday, the US government tried to borrow $24 billion by selling a bunch of 30 year debt.

It was a huge disaster. In order to get enough people to buy, the rate had to dramatically increase. Even then, then primary dealers had to buy 25% of the debt. The primary dealer are the buyers of last resort who have to buy.

China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia ... none of them are buying our debt. In fact, most are selling what they already have.

With few buying, the US government is borrowing more than ever. $1.5 trillion in the past 4 months and they announced another $1.5 trillion in the next 6 months. The US government will have to offer higher and higher rates to attracted lenders.

  1. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    How much longer do you think we have left, anon? Before monetary collapse that is... politi-errr financially speaking

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      There is no sudden collapse
      The dollar just gradually becomes less worth

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        If none of these countries are purchasing our debt, and the interest on that debt is already surpassing 1 trillion per fiscal year, at what point do you think people just stop accepting dollars (that would be more of a sudden stop scenario).

        I have some friends who work in the tech industry and from what they've told me, they are being offered different payment options now... such as BTC, & ETH so a company will offer you this now, like get any % of pay in BTC you want vs fiat you want.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          that's not how it works, OP is correct
          dollar will just more rapidly debase, as it has been doing since the 70s, and accelerated with covid.

          no one will just "stop" accepting dollars, learn basic supply and demand

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            It's been doing that since 1913, learn basic monetary history.

            And yes people can just stop accepting dollars, it's just a choice, companies are offering BTC instead of fiat now. Learn how to choose, don't be a sheep.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              >This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private
              It's technically illegal to refuse the fed's shitcoin.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                within the usa yes, but the big rugpull happens when the usd isnt accepting in foreign trade anymore
                happened before when the arabs demanded gold for oil during ww2, back then they still had the gold
                imagine what would happen today if most of the commodities exporters that are left after the russia sanction suddenly said no mas and all aluminum, coal and wheat had to be purchased in a hard asset like say btc

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                > arabs demanded gold for oil

                You realize the usa has a massive fleet in the Mediterranean, right? 2 aircraft groups, not just the aircraft carriers. They’re able to strike the Black Sea and Middle East/Iran. Not counting what israel has. european military power is that little bitch chihuahua barking in the neighbors yard, fucking homosexual euroshits.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                yes they have the ability to bomb people have had that for 80 years, now please explain how bombing cities is going to make commodities be exported in usd
                remember the usa for all its firepower has never been able to actually occupy something evne afghanistan scored a glorious victory there
                good luck getting those aircraft carriers to force third world people into the cobalt mines

                What's in February?

                fed reverse repo runs dry, thats the buyer of last resort for the treasure market right now

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                > now please explain how bombing cities is going to make commodities be exported in usd

                Marshall plan, goyim. Oy vey you have to rebuild. Mmmmmm tough huh? Well we have these cheap easy loans, goyim. You think the saudis will give up their 1 trillion for net worth for some Palestinians?

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                they are doing in increasingly larger fashion
                most of their deals with unaffiliated countries are already being done in currency other than usd
                nobody is falling for the imf loans anymore, look at africa kicking out france and laughing at it
                again talk all the hubris you want but bombers do not produce commodities

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                Im not laughing. I hate zog as much as anyone. I’m just saying what they do. Bombed don’t produce commodities directly, but when everyone’s poor and starving and desperate, you know mining some uranium for 1/50 the price may not be so bad. Even these scumbag rich fucks/billionaires/ whites are saying workers are too uppity and comfortable and regular people in the west need 59% unemployment so we can work better.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >https://x.com/iluminatibot/status/1722983080397361401?s=20
                lol way to move he goalposts there, but some fucks saying so doesnt make it true
                its quite the opposite moral has never been lower same with real productivity in most of the west
                it all ended when the dream of property ownership and starting a family died
                the graphs get posted here regularly no matter how materially deprived the situation gets men are checking out of society right now when everything is fine
                so again good luck bombing some thrid world capital and thinking that will get their people to mine for peanuts for you
                like i mentioned earlier tell me how frances intervention in the sahel worked out for them

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                Fed reverse repo still has a Trillion in it. it'll take longer to run it dry. and taxes in April will buy some more time for the Treasury.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                > purchased in a hard asset like say btc

                Also you know there have been 2 manhunts in the usa recently. I mean full fbi/swat/dogs/helicopters. The latest guy has fucking tanks and shit After him. All I’m saying if if you’re going to play poker you have to anty up more than your mom.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              do you any proof for this? it sounds like youre just making it up. can companies have crypto on their balance sheets to handle payroll? where does the crypto go, who keeps the wallet, does every employee need a wallet to get paid?

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              >hurdur
              -it ramped up significantly in 70s because they stopped lying about gold peg
              - people can stop accepting anything iff they're retarded yeah, if someone offers you a million USD, even if it is worth only 100 today USD, you take it because 100 USD is not nothing
              dumbass

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          As i and the other said its abgradual process.
          Somebody will always buy for 1% apr more, etc

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Imagine if the feds have to lsap treasury debt while trying to fight inflation. It might work too, since they can keep that going indefinitely, while people get squeezed.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          if only there were some way for the government to directly collect dollars from people who have a lot

          whoops haha that wasn't very anti semitic of me

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      bond market oopsie in feb next year
      policy response after that will stabilize it for a while but btc will moon hard

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        What's in February?

  2. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Explain like im stupid. Cause I'm dumb as fuck. Who is the USA borrowing money from. Why don't they just tell the countries to pound sand. Start over with a gold/BTC backed dollar.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      The Treasury issues bonds/tbills at various maturities and sells them at an auction. Banks/institutions/countries etc. then bid on them. The yields are how much the bonds pay out, which go up when not many people want them, and down when lots of people want them.
      The US is borrowing money with debt to fund the government. Other countries generally want lots of US debt because it is both considered very safe, and their own currency/debt might not be so safe.
      Currently the 30y is going up because the yields have been too low for them (why get a 30 bond at 4.6% when i can just get more liquid 1year at 4.6%)

  3. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >failed bond auction
    yes, and the real humor was the very next day china said there central bank was victim of hack and it impacted their ability to buy said bonds
    the humor there is undeniable. truly funny.
    >ahhh sry cheezeburger american...we cant buy bond now all system down. you try later.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      ?si=h4L9j2Fh9jYh4XQp
      Oopsie doopsie, just a gritch.

  4. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >the rate had to dramatically increase
    >0.04725
    >0.048
    >an increase of 0.00075

  5. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    https://x.com/iluminatibot/status/1722983080397361401?s=20

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Guy has it completely backwards, all of our social programs have only been able to be funded because of other countries buying our debt, that out weighs any foreign aid we're handing out. The real foreign aid is what we spend on the military, that subsidizes other countries, but even that feeds into a sort of welfare program for the American military.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        well yes this is it. us has been mercs for the world....paid for by buying us bonds.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >Why are we financing other peoples comfort?
      Their lives are drastically changed. All these rich oil countries, as much as they hate Zod these rich oil countries are seriously questioning their commitment to sparkle motion. Just sayin

  6. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    nice blog post

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Thanks anon

  7. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    NO BID

  8. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    to keep my money locked up for 30 years I'll need 7% minimum. And that's being generous

  9. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >4.725% to 4.800%
    OH NO IT'S -- IT'S FUCKIN OVER!!!!!!!

  10. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Have you guys ever actually looked at the open interest on the curve? 30-Y is really illiquid compared to the 1-5y tenors. Mortgage rates are even based off a bootstrap of the 10-y yield despite being 30 on average.

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